The latest public opinion survey conducted by the Costa Rican firm CID Gallup in Nicaragua, sponsored by CONFIDENCIAL, reveals that "Nicaraguans feel that they are already hitting rock bottom" and think that "it can't get any worse," says research director Luis Haug. "There is a very direct relationship with public corruption, which is being pointed out as the culprit of the economic hardships being experienced in the country," indicates the Costa Rican consultant.

A second conclusion of the survey is that party sympathy for the Sandinista Front remains at its lowest historical level of 14%-15%, but "the sympathizers of the official party no longer rate their leaders highly, but there is a certain crack in their positions, as well as criticisms towards the leaders of the grouping," says Haug.

The most visible example is the national rejection of the 26-year prison sentence against Monsignor Rolando Alvarez, which among the population totals 72% and has only 9% support, and among FSLN supporters 42% think that the bishop is innocent and should be released, while 30% support the official policy of imprisoning him, and 27% avoided answering the question.

The telephone survey was conducted between October 17 and November 15, 2023, based on a sample of 800 people with an active cell phone, with a margin of error of + -2.93% and a confidence level of 95%. The director of Cid Gallup admitted that there is a "fear factor" that must be overcome to be able to talk to Nicaraguans who have been living under a police state for five years, to the extent that to interview 800 people it is necessary to call between 8,000 and 10,000 people first, "Once they accept and trust is generated, it allows us to obtain honest answers," said the pollster in this interview with Esta Semana and CONFIDENCIAL.

Corruption and "rock bottom"

According to the survey, 60% of Nicaraguans hold the opinion that the country is going in the wrong direction and 29% say it is going in the right direction. Is this a constant trend in other surveys or is there any change with previous months or years?

What we are already seeing is a constant pessimism among Nicaraguan citizens regarding the future that awaits them in the country. There is a permanent desire to be able to leave Nicaragua, to emigrate to other places, negativity concerning the economic situation of the family, negativity concerning the corruption that is perceived in the government, and also in the political persecutions being seen against other people.

People mention unemployment at 24%, corruption in the government at 22%, cost of living and poverty at 17%, political crisis at 12%, insecurity, crime, and robbery at 7% as the country's main problems. These economic, unemployment, and cost of living issues have been dominant in recent years in other surveys, but public corruption again comes to the forefront and 52% say it has increased in the last six months.

We are seeing a very direct relationship and also similar to what has been observed in other Latin American countries, where corruption is being blamed for the economic hardships being experienced in the country. When it is perceived that the rulers, and the people who are at their side are working for themselves, enriching themselves, taking advantage of the different positions they have to enrich themselves and not working for the benefit of the people. All these problems of the cost of living, of not being able to have the money to buy groceries or acquire a job that would allow them to be able to cope in the future, tend to be maximized. This is because today there is a perceived culprit [among the population].

However, there is another question that seems to indicate a different trend. How do you expect the country to be in the next 12 months? 39% say better, 33% say worse and 28% say the same. Is that an expectation of economic improvement?

Sadly, no. We talked to them, and after the interviews, we also did in-depth interviews to understand the different answers that people are giving us a little bit better. And something that is happening in Nicaragua is that many people consider that we are already touching "rock bottom," and that it can't be any worse.

So there is a certain hope when you get to these levels that "God willing", the situation may be better in the future, but it does not mean an unbridled optimism that things are going to get better, but rather that I am already so bad that my situation cannot get worse. I no longer have a job, the little money I have is barely enough to meet my basic needs and therefore I can only go forward.

Broad consensus: Monsignor Rolando Alvarez is innocent

This week, Monsignor Rolando Alvarez, the bishop of Matagalpa, turned 57 years old, locked up in an isolation cell in La Modelo Prison. He was sentenced to 26 years in prison for alleged treason. In the survey, 72% of the population says that they disagree with the imprisonment of Monsignor Alvarez, that he is innocent and should be released and only 9% say he is guilty, and agrees that he is condemned and imprisoned.

There is a very strong consensus and we see this opinion consolidated in different questions throughout the study. For example, the great majority of people consider that the priests who were expelled from the country should have the right to return to Nicaragua and be able to participate freely in their parishes.

There is also a fairly consolidated opinion throughout the population that these persecutions are unjust on the part of the government towards members of the Catholic Church, which at the same time, when we consolidate with other questions and analyze, tend to see these perceived acts as corruption.

When we separate the opinion only of those who sympathize with the Sandinista Front: 42% say they disagree that Monsignor Alvarez is in prison, they say he is innocent, 30.4% say he is guilty and there is also a high percentage, 27% who refuse to answer this question, but most of the opinions say he is innocent.

This is part of the different variables that we see over time concerning the Sandinista party. A few years ago, we saw a very consolidated perception of the official party's supporters, where there was an almost messianic support for its leaders. As the months have gone by, the Sandinista party has been decreasing in the number of people who declare themselves its followers. At the same time, we no longer observe a consolidated opinion of all of them, but we are also beginning to observe a certain cracking of their positions and criticisms towards the leaders of the group.

In the case of the 12 political prisoner priests who were released from prison and banished to the Vatican, 46% say it is positive that they are free because they are innocent. Twenty-six percent say it is negative, and that they should be in prison. And when they are asked about the banishment, the opinion of people who say that the banishment is negative increases considerably. Fifty-nine percent say they should return to their parishes in Nicaragua and only 18% say it is positive that they have been sent out of their homeland.

This is where we see the position I mentioned earlier, that Sandinismo itself no longer stands behind a single position. Instead, we are beginning to see fragmentation concerning the evaluation of the government's actions. On the other hand, we see a fairly consolidated opposition to their way of thinking, a quite relevant majority against the expulsion of the members of the Catholic Church, where we see a desire for them to return and a quite clear rejection of the imprisonment of Monsignor Álvarez.

Censorship and independent media

Finally, a question that has to do with the country's context, about the degree of freedom, and on the other hand, of fear and censorship. The question is, do you consider that in Nicaragua the media critical of the government are censored? Yes, 65% do, but 26% do not. And that is a very similar percentage to the one that says they are afraid to talk to the independent media.

When we see the opposition to the Sandinista party, we see repression by the governmental entities towards the media, political leaders, and leaders of the Catholic Church. All those who are expressing one or another opinion in disagreement with what is expressed by the presidential couple, are perceived to be in certain danger. So the media do not feel free to speak freely about what is happening in the country, whether it is good or bad.

The fear factor: how a poll is conducted under dictatorship

This survey was conducted by telephone among 800 citizens throughout the country, over 18 years of age, with active cell phones between October 17 and November 15 of this year. How is the sample selected and how representative is it?

Yes, the sample is randomly selected from all active cell phones. We have a base with all the active cellular phones at this moment in the Nicaraguan telephone system and with it, we randomly generate the last four digits. We are calling these digits to be representative of the entire Nicaraguan population currently residing in the country. With this, we ensure that we have coverage in all departments and the different ages and education of the population of 16 years and older.

But taking into account that Nicaragua lives under a police state and there is no freedom of expression, how did you manage to effectively interview those 800 people? How many people did you call in order to get those answers?

We managed to reach approximately 9,000 people, before we managed to find those 800 citizens who were willing to talk to us. It is a slightly lower incidence than what we find in other countries, given the different situations that are occurring in Nicaragua at the moment. Once the citizen decides to talk to us, that empathy has been generated, where the answers they are giving us are what the person considers.

Statistically, the survey has a margin of error of + -2.93% and a confidence level of 95%. But what level of real confidence do you attribute to these answers? Does it influence in any way what is said in Nicaragua about the fear factor to give an opinion or distrust in the pollsters?

Definitely, the fear factor comes into play in those people who are refusing the interview. Once they answer the phone, they begin feeling more comfortable once they know it's us [CID-Gallup], they know they are being called from a foreign number, normally the fear diminishes and they give honest answers to the questions. But for the whole initial process, we call approximately 8,000 to 10,000 people, and when someone answers, we inform them that we are calling for an interview from Costa Rica, to talk about general topics. From there on, we have to generate trust, a positive relationship between informant-interviewer, that allows us to get honest answers.

This article was published in Spanish in Confidencial and translated by our staff. To get the most relevant news from our English coverage delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe to The Dispatch.