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One week after the US military intervention that resulted in the capture of dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and the appointment of Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, as interim president, Venezuela oscillates between relief over Maduro’s fall and fear that the Chavista dictatorship will remain in power, now under the tutelage of President Donald Trump and an internal state of “civil commotion,” without any clear roadmap toward a democratic transition.
On the program Esta Semana, broadcast Sunday, January 11 at 8:00 p.m. on the CONFIDENCIAL YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, we spoke with human rights defender Carolina Jimenez, president of the Washington Office for Latin America (WOLA), and journalist Luz Mely Reyes, director of the independent outlet Efecto Cocuyo, about Venezuela’s future under the control of the Trump administration.
They spoke about the fear generated by the declared state of “civil commotion,” about how President-elect Edmundo Gonzalez—winner of the July 28, 2024 elections—has been discarded by Donald Trump, and about the lack of a date for free elections or a justice process without impunity. But, they added, “there is hope that this could lead to a democratic transition. It’s not what we’re seeing at the moment, but the context is truly different from what it was on January 3.”
What is happening in Venezuela one week after the US military operation that led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores? Those images of Maduro imprisoned generated much joy in Venezuela and among the diaspora. How did Venezuelans react to the news that Donald Trump decided to impose Delcy Rodríguez as interim president in a government tutored by the United States? Was that a surprise to Venezuelans?
Luz Mely Reyes, director of Efecto Cocuyo. Totally. It was a surprise. We went from the joy that many expressed to this shock over Donald Trump’s decision. And now, a week later, with everything still shifting, expectations revolve around whether Trump’s tutelage will function economically—whether there will be some economic stability in the country. And unfortunately, discussions about how to build a path toward democracy—not just changing the head of the dictatorship—still haven’t found space across Venezuelan society.
What is the atmosphere in Venezuela today? Is there joy and hope, or fear and uncertainty? Who controls the streets right now?
Carolina Jiménez, director of WOLA. All the feelings you just listed are present. The country feels relieved seeing Nicolas Maduro—the strongman of the government, or at least its most visible face as de facto president—facing judicial proceedings in the United States. That initially generated surprise, but also relief and joy among the diaspora. But it quickly turned into uncertainty, especially when people saw that power had passed to the Rodriguez siblings, and that there was no real transition process. What we are seeing is a transition without a (democratic) transition.
There is fear. The minute those bombs fell in Caracas and elsewhere, the government responded by issuing a decree of “civil commotion,” a kind of highly repressive state of exception that means anyone in Venezuela can be detained for advocating a change of government. We already know of at least two elderly people detained in Merida in western Venezuela for publicly expressing joy over Maduro’s capture.
There is also hope, especially among victims’ relatives, who have seen some political prisoners released. There is hope that many more will be freed in a country with more than a thousand political prisoners. And there is hope that this may lead to a democratic transition. It’s not what we’re seeing right now, but the context is truly different from January 3.
Who is Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president now serving as interim president? Some media describe her as ideological and a Chavista loyalist, but also pragmatic.
Luz Mely Reyes. She is all of that. Although she is firmly on the left—not only as a matter of family background but personal conviction—she doesn’t belong to the first generation of Chavismo. She had a stint during Hugo Chavez’s government, but became more involved after Chavez’s death. She has been labeled from abroad as pragmatic and moderate. I would say she is pragmatic, but not moderate at all.
She has always been aligned with her brother Jorge Rodríguez—the architect of many negotiation efforts and deals with the United States, and now president of the National Assembly. Both have always been more willing to negotiate on political prisoners and releases. On everything else, Delcy Rodríguez has been fully committed to Nicolas Maduro’s cause.
Besides Delcy in the presidency and Jorge Rodriguez in the legislature, General Vladimir Padrino remains head of the Army, and Diosdado Cabello heads the Interior Ministry. The power structures of “madurismo” remain intact. How is Maduro’s dictatorship supposed to be dismantled?
Carolina Jiménez. This is a question the US government has been asked many times. The closest thing to a transition plan is the statement given by the Secretary of State outlining three phases: stabilization, recovery, and transition. Stabilization is what we’re seeing now, which implies removing Maduro and installing a government with different authorities. Marco Rubio says this is ‘stabilization’ because removing those authorities as well might have provoked violent responses from actors unwilling to accept new authorities. But that doesn’t mean the US should stop pushing for political opening under this new government—opening the door to key opposition figures. So far, none of that has been announced.
María Corina Machado is traveling to Washington to speak with President Trump, the outcome remains to been.. Spanish president Pedro Sanchez has said he is willing to mediate between the opposition and Delcy Rodriguez’s de facto government, alongside Lula, Sheinbaum, and Petro. Pieces are moving so hopefully this stabilization phase may lead to democratic opening.
The second phase—economic recovery—is what most interests the United States, because Trump has openly stated his desire for US oil companies to control the Venezuelan oil market.
According to Rubio, the final phase would be transition. But we still don’t know what that means. It will be important for the US to understand, one, that actions should not be unilateral—they should be accompanied by regional governments; two, no phase can occur without democratic civil society actors in Venezuela; and three, timelines and concrete plans must be defined.
If the transition phase is six, seven, eight years out, then from the standpoint of democratic transition, the plan is doomed to fail.
Trump has talked a lot about oil, as if selling Venezuelan oil at market prices and reinjecting the proceeds into the national economy were a kind of panacea. But when you listen to experts in oil and economic development, they say this can only be achieved in the long term, as a result of building development institutions that allow for long-term investment in the oil sector.
Luz Mely Reyes. Economists take a strong view based on macro indicators, but I think that if Venezuela were to receive an injection of economic resources — through whatever mechanism, which we don’t yet know — that would have an immediate impact in the form of small improvements in everyday life. That people, in their daily lives, could see some improvement in income, through a very fast plan to reactivate the economy — not at an intensive level like oil, but rather on a more broad-based level and by redistributing that income, which is in fact the Venezuelan model, a rentier model. That could have an immediate impact in small improvements that would be very highly valued by the population.
You spoke about the expectations of the victims. The release of all political prisoners is still pending; at the time we are recording this program, only a very small number have been freed. You also mentioned that Maduro will be tried in court for narco-terrorism. But international justice has been pursuing Maduro for crimes against humanity, and there are ongoing investigations into other members of the regime’s leadership. Will there be justice in Venezuela?
Carolina Jiménez. If there is no justice, there is no transition. It would be very difficult to have a transition process in Venezuela if the victims, who number in the thousands, do not feel that their dignity has been restored.
Venezuela has the only open investigation before the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. That is an indicator of the scale of the crimes the Venezuelan state has committed against its own population. We are facing a society that carries deep wounds. If those victims are not repaired, in their integrity and in the dignity that was violated, it is very difficult for there to be a real transition process.
What should that justice look like for Venezuelans? How should it be built? This is an open debate, because we do need justice, but we also need a democratic transition, we need a change of government, and that will probably include figures from Chavismo within transitional governments.
That does not mean there should be impunity. We have to build our own justice process; we cannot accept a blank check for impunity. We must build a comprehensive system of transitional justice in Venezuela, and we have to make sure that a transition does not simply become a context of impunity.
What role does President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia play in this process, and I don’t know whether he has any role at all in the United States’ plan? He won the July 28, 2024 election with more than 67 percent of the vote and embodies the legitimacy of that election.
Luz Mely Reyes. From the Donald Trump government’s perspective, he has no role at all. In fact, when they alluded to the electoral process, when they talk about laying out a roadmap for a democratic transition, what they suggest is that everything ends in a new election, and that this real transitional government, not the current one, does not appear to be led by Edmundo González Urrutia.
However, I think the role he is playing right now, together with María Corina Machado, has to do with another actor on the global stage: the European Union. Just as the European Union had to step in when Donald Trump dismissed President Zelensky, it has also declared that a democratic transition in Venezuela must be built. That is where Edmundo González Urrutia can play a major role. And in fact, almost within hours of Maduro’s ouster, he put forward the thread that could guide that transition, the release of political prisoners.
At this moment in Venezuela, is there freedom of assembly, freedom of movement? Can people go out to demonstrate and celebrate Maduro’s departure or demand change, or is the country under a kind of police state?
Luz Mely Reyes. The decree of internal commotion reduces the chances that dissidents or groups that do not support the dictatorship can take to the streets. Which groups have been able to mobilize? The ones that have always been protected by the government, and they do so under the protection of the Armed Forces, the police, and paramilitary groups. Recently, when the new National Assembly was installed — which has nothing to do with a change of government and was elected in May of last year — one of the deputies wore a T-shirt that said “Freedom for political prisoners,” and that person was attacked inside Parliament itself.
Carolina Jiménez. That day, when the new National Assembly was established, 14 journalists and media workers were detained, and a foreign journalist was deported. What was their crime? Reporting. Fortunately, they were later released, but it sent a very bad signal.
What is happening in Venezuela we know through coverage by Venezuelan press on the ground, and also through international media, but are independent Venezuelan outlets like Efecto Cocuyo and others blocked by the regime? Is the digital blockade still in place, or can people access them?
Luz Mely Reyes. The digital blockade continues, legal harassment continues, stigmatization continues, surveillance continues. Recently, several journalists from independent outlets were able to attend the headquarters of the Political Police, where 65 political prisoners are held, and we saw it as progress that these journalists could be there to monitor what was happening. It was a small step forward. However, the city of Cúcuta has become something like a dormitory city for dozens of international journalists who are trying to enter Venezuela but are not allowed in. The only people they do not let in are journalists.
This approach of controlling information still affects independent Venezuelan media. Journalists cannot sign their pieces and cannot appear publicly while covering critical issues. They are doing their work anonymously, and those of us in exile are being supported by journalists on the ground.
What can we expect in the coming week? What events or signals might indicate that things are moving toward a democratic transition or not?
Luz Mely Reyes. It is still not moving toward a democratic transition, and I do not think that will happen in a week. The process is moving toward stabilization of the regime, and that involves meetings in Colombia with President Petro, meetings with members of the U.S. State Department, and there is already a delegation of U.S. diplomats in Venezuela. One thing that will likely continue is the release of political prisoners. What happens is that in Venezuela there are more than 800 political prisoners, and the number has even been increasing because many people had not filed complaints out of fear. Now that this movement has begun, they have turned to human rights organizations. So the first thing we will see is that. In this effort to stabilize, it is very likely that the regime will appeal to this mantra of unity. They will try to bring back figures who were emblematic of Chavismo, who moved to the opposition but never renounced Chavismo itself, only Nicolás Maduro. Strategically, this will benefit them to maintain calm within the Armed Forces and also to reconnect with the Chavista base.
María Corina Machado is going to meet with Donald Trump next week. Is there any expectation that this will have some impact, or is it just a formal encounter between Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize winner?
Carolina Jiménez. Trump is one of the most unpredictable leaders in the political history of the United States. One of the things you learn over time, working on democracy and human rights issues with his involvement, is that he changes a lot based on his instincts, because he is a businessman and he operates in that way. It was very interesting to see how he spoke very badly about Brazil and Brazilian politics one day, and then at the United Nations he praised Lula da Silva, and the rest is history. I suppose Bolsonaro must be begging him to change his mind, because today Lula and Trump are friends.
And now Petro.
Carolina Jiménez. And now he is friends with Petro. So Trump’s character sometimes plays a big role in determining where his foreign policy goes. We have to take into account that this is an election year in the United States, and there are different versions in the polls. In general, Americans view Maduro’s departure positively, but there is not necessarily strong support for military action as such.
For Trump, a stable Venezuela will be very important, because a Venezuela that requires a lot of investment from the United States is not going to be well received by his base. That will ultimately be his main political calculation, especially with internal elections that are very important to him. If he loses, or if his party loses at least the House of Representatives in Congress, everything would seem to indicate he could lose it all.
We are all going to have our eyes glued to the screens on the day he finally meets with María Corina Machado, because beyond her praising him in public and what we see Trump say, that is a very complex relationship. How that meeting unfolds and what consequences it has could also shape changes in what is happening in Venezuela today.
