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Peru’s political system is one of the most fragmented and unstable in Latin America. A series of institutional flaws and ingrained political habits has led the country into a permanent governance crisis, in which presidents serve very short periods and party and legislative elites prefer to survive through fragmentation rather than risk losing their respective strongholds.
The April 12th election will be another test for this dispersed political system. None of the three leading candidates (Keiko Fujimori, Rafael Lopez Aliaga, or Carlos Alvarez) has the electoral base needed to win on the first round. According to a poll cited by El Comercio, the frontrunner Fujimori would be hovering around 18% of the vote.
Daniel Zovatto, a keen observer of Latin American political life, foresees “an inevitable runoff,” highly competitive and with uncertain results. That second round, to be held in June, could result in yet another fragile presidency in Peru—something that, as in the past, would not necessarily mean that ungovernability will lead to a deep structural crisis or to a clearly defined political shift in the national and regional landscape.
The vicious cycle of Peruvian politics appears trapped in this normalization of presidential instability, which does not generate major costs for the ruling class nor for macroeconomic stability. The April 12 elections in this Andean country will be both presidential and legislative. More decisive than who wins the presidency will be those who secure the 190 seats in the new Congress.
If the dozen parties participating in these elections continue to divide the political landscape into small fragments, as they have until now, there is little reason to expect greater governmental stability after the vote.
Fuerza Popular, Fujimori’s party, could retain around twenty seats, making it the best-represented organization, though that would still barely exceed 10% to 15% of the total parliamentary space.
Amid so much uncertainty, there are few certainties, and one of them is that those who emerge victorious and move on to the runoff are unlikely to be political actors located anywhere on the regional left. Alvarez, candidate of the País para Todos alliance, who presents himself as an outsider, declares admiration for Elon Musk and supports a hardline approach to security.
The pressure exerted by the legislative minorities that emerge with seats on April 12 will be key in tipping the balance in favor of the runoff contenders. Therefore, months of questions lie ahead, with greater clarity gradually emerging as parliamentary groups and party elites reshape the alliances that will determine electoral support in the second round.
*This article was originally published in La Razón, Mexico.
