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Harold Rocha: “47,000 Nicaraguans in Imminent Danger of Deportation in the U.S.”

The number of Nicaraguans to be deported from the United States “will increase significantly, they are present everywhere,” says NALDEF president

A Texas National Guard soldier.

A Texas National Guard soldier watches as thousands of migrants walk toward a U.S. Border Patrol transit center. AFP | Confidencial

Carlos F. Chamorro

27 de enero 2025

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In his first week as president of the United States, Donald Trump eliminated humanitarian parole, which had allowed half a million migrants to enter the country in the past two years. He also canceled the CPB One application, which enabled migrants to request asylum at the border, suspended the Safe Mobility program designed to facilitate refuge in the U.S., increased detentions of irregular migrants, and began deportations to Mexico, Guatemala, and other countries. “This is the first part of a broad strategy that will profoundly transform the way immigration policy is implemented in the United States,” warns lawyer Harold Rocha, president of the Nicaraguan American Legal Defense and Education Fund (NALDEF) and one of the advocates for restoring Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Nicaraguans, which Trump eliminated during his first term in 2017.

In a conversation on Esta Semana, which aired on Sunday, January 25, 2025, on CONFIDENCIAL's YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Rocha said that 47,000 Nicaraguans are in imminent danger of deportation, as a process is already underway against them. However, this number could rise significantly, as more than 300,000 migrants are in irregular situations.

“Nicaraguans are everywhere,” Rocha emphasized. “Not just in Florida and California. Since 2018, there has been tremendous growth in the number of Nicaraguans working on farms and ranches in agriculture and livestock throughout the Midwest: Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri. There is also a significant Nicaraguan community in Texas, Louisiana, northern California, Oregon, Washington—across the entire country,” he said.

Harold Rocha
Harold Rocha. Photo: courtesy

What is your assessment of the impact of the first decrees approved by President Trump to prevent the entry of migrants into the United States, promote deportations, and completely reverse the policy of the Democratic administration?


Unfortunately, it’s not surprising at all, and we must be aware that this is the first part of a broad strategy that will profoundly transform the way immigration policy is implemented from the United States. In the previous administration of President Trump, we already saw signs of this. We saw very harsh policies, like the separation of children from their parents at the border, and many of them still haven't been reunited. We knew this was coming from the previous administration, but also because of the rhetoric from the parties that has been maintained during the four years of the Biden administration, which has gone in this direction, and because the campaign platforms were very explicit about it. I had the opportunity to be part of the Republican Convention, and most of the delegates were calling for mass deportations. So this is nothing surprising. Fortunately, there is a large network of NGOs and other institutions that have been preparing for this.

How do these measures impact the Nicaraguan community, the Nicaraguan diaspora that arrived in the United States many years ago, and also the hundreds of thousands who arrived after 2018 and 2019?

One key measure affecting Nicaraguans is the end of the Humanitarian Parole program, which had allowed nearly 100,000 Nicaraguans to enter the United States safely, without risk, and with a two-year stay and work permit, without the requirement to leave before the parole expired.

It impacts those who were at the border waiting for an appointment to apply for asylum, as the CPB One app, which was used to schedule those appointments, was immediately canceled. There are also other measures that limit the ability to apply for asylum, and it’s still unclear what will happen with the guidelines the Department of Homeland Security may issue. However, the person leading immigration policy within the National Security Council, as well as in other agencies, is expected to introduce new guidelines that will further tighten asylum processing, especially the criteria for granting it.

In addition to what you’ve mentioned about asylum, the mechanisms for granting refuge have been suspended, especially the Safe Mobility Program, which allowed many Nicaraguans to migrate to the United States legally, with others still in the application process. The program has been suspended for 90 days. What can we expect after this?

That program indeed allowed for entry into the United States with refugee status, without having to resubmit an asylum application. This is also tied to the obligations the United States has under international agreements, conventions, and other accords. So, we hope for a review of this. However, it will be quite difficult for this to return to the level of refugees being received under the Biden Administration, as the previous administration under President Trump implemented a significant reduction in the number of refugee resettlements, in a process similar to what is known as Safe Mobility.

President Trump also eliminated the right to citizenship by birth in the United States, which is part of a constitutional amendment, and this is currently being challenged before the Supreme Court by over 20 states and several cities. What could happen in the Supreme Court?

Technically, an executive order cannot eliminate or modify a constitutional amendment. The only way to do so is through another constitutional clause. And that is a process that takes years. It not only has to be approved by Congress, but also by the legislatures of 38 states, according to the mechanisms each state has in place for approval. So, it is not believed that this will go very far legally. However, concrete and practical effects of that order are already visible, such as requiring state authorities not to issue birth certificates, not to grant Social Security numbers, and not to issue identity documents—these measures are in effect.

It is expected that federal courts will issue a temporary suspension order until a ruling is made. It is assumed this will be a lengthy process, as it will go through the first and second instance courts and finally to the Supreme Court.

How would you describe the situation that Nicaraguan migrants, and migrants in general, find themselves in today in the United States? Are they in a state of total defenselessness, or do they still have some mechanisms to appeal or protect themselves?

There is a sense of defenselessness and great vulnerability. Above all, there is a lot of fear and anxiety. But the way to overcome this is by remembering that the Constitution is still in effect, along with the protections it provides, regardless of immigration status, simply due to one's presence on U.S. soil. All of that remains in place. The way to address this is by turning to reliable sources of information and seeking support from networks already working to provide assistance, because private lawyers will not be able to keep up. If the strategy of deporting millions is implemented, it will be impossible.

Nonprofits won’t be able to handle it either because their resources are very limited. We must operate under the assumption that many people will have to defend themselves. Part of the strategy for many NGOs right now is precisely to create guides so that people know how to defend themselves, how to respond if immigration shows up at their workplace, home, school, or hospital—because they could be there for reasons unrelated to immigration. This information is how to resist and prepare to face the challenges presented by this new immigration policy.

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In detention centers where hundreds or even thousands of people have already been gathered, there is a lot of fear and anxiety. Trump promised that on the day of his inauguration, and the day after, the first mass deportations would begin. Are these raids and mass deportations already happening in the United States?

According to media reports, they are. Videos have surfaced showing that raids are already taking place. It's important to note that while many people are currently vulnerable, those numbers are expected to rise significantly. A new law, which has already been approved by both chambers of Congress and is only awaiting President Trump's signature, will expand the number of people subject to detention and deportation. This includes not only individuals with criminal records for serious offenses but also those with minor offenses or infractions. For instance, it was estimated that around 47,048 Nicaraguans already had deportation orders. However, it is unclear how many others have criminal records, and once this new law is signed, that number is expected to increase significantly.

You are the president of a legal defense organization for Nicaraguan migrants in the United States. In addition to the figure you mentioned, is it possible to estimate how many Nicaraguans are at the highest risk of deportation?

We have been working on this since 2017 as part of a campaign to secure a new TPS designation after President Trump terminated the one that had been in place since 1999. A small Washington-based think tank called Forward US conducted a study for us in January 2023. Their estimate was based on the number of encounters between Nicaraguans and Border Patrol, as well as those who, after entering the country without being intercepted by authorities, had filed asylum applications. At that time, they estimated that around 350,000 Nicaraguans could potentially benefit from a new TPS designation. This included individuals with pending asylum cases who were unlikely to win due to a lack of solid evidence to support their claims.

In addition to the 47,000 Nicaraguans with existing deportation orders, more people will likely be added once the new law is passed. A new estimate would be needed to determine how many Nicaraguans with criminal records—whether for serious or minor offenses—are at risk of deportation, as they are not currently included in the 47,000 figure because they do not yet have formal deportation orders. However, that no longer guarantees anything, because under the new law, at any moment, any immigration officer could ask for documentation, and if someone doesn't have it, they would be at risk of being expelled.

In recent years, even during Democratic administrations, the U.S. has maintained a steady pace of deportations of Nicaraguans to Nicaragua. Could deportations increase significantly? Would an agreement between Daniel Ortega’s dictatorship and the Trump administration be necessary to carry them out, or could they proceed unilaterally?

The pace of deportations is expected to increase significantly. It’s important to understand that while immigration policy may shift slightly depending on which party is in power, these policies are ultimately matters of state that align with the country’s broader interests. For example, during the Obama administration, it was clear that there was a deep economic crisis and a need to protect the labor market. As a result, the number of deportations under Obama was massive— even higher than during the following Trump administration.

Another thing to keep in mind is that for some time now, the U.S. electorate has increasingly viewed this as a serious issue that their representatives must address. There are protocols and laws in place that require a person’s identity to be verified before they can be deported. This usually involves dialogue or contact with the government authorities of the country of origin. This is a key point because, as of now, there is no active agreement between Nicaragua and the United States to facilitate this process. Based on a memorandum issued by the Secretary of State, it is assumed that one of the priorities of their administration will be to seek migration agreements to curb irregular migration.

In Nicaragua’s case, the situation is even more complicated because the Nicaraguan government has not only refused to cooperate and accept deported nationals—although deportations do happen—but it has also shut down consulates in the country that were responsible for facilitating the identification of its citizens. As a result, the deportation or removal process for Nicaraguans tends to take significantly longer compared to other nationalities.

This presents an opportunity to foster cooperation between the Nicaraguan and U.S. governments, as it is the state’s responsibility to assist and support its citizens.

But could this cooperation, which benefits the United States in implementing its deportation policy, also give an advantage to Daniel Ortega’s regime?

Unfortunately, that’s always a possibility. And we have some pretty recent examples of this. For instance, the Biden administration granted Venezuelans two TPS designations and two extensions, including the one announced about ten days ago. These were granted just one day after the Venezuelan government at the time agreed to cooperate in receiving deported nationals. It is widely assumed that this was part of a broader agreement—if you look at the timeline, the connection becomes quite clear.

Where are the communities or groups of Nicaraguans most vulnerable to deportation?

The vast majority are in Florida, because it’s the state that hosts the largest number of Nicaraguans. But we know it’s not just Florida and California, as it was in the ‘80s. Now there are Nicaraguans all over the United States, in places where you wouldn’t expect to find them. For example, after 2018, there has been a huge increase in the number of Nicaraguans working on farms and ranches in agriculture and livestock across the Midwest: Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri. Many of them, precisely because they are in smaller groups, are more vulnerable. But Nicaraguans are everywhere—there’s a significant Nicaraguan community in Texas, Louisiana, and as there has always been, in northern California, Oregon, Washington, and all over the country.

 This article was first published in Spanish by Confidencial and translated by our staffTo get the most relevant news from our English coverage delivered straight to your inbox, subscribe to The Dispatch.

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Carlos F. Chamorro

Carlos F. Chamorro

Periodista nicaragüense, exiliado en Costa Rica. Fundador y director de Confidencial y Esta Semana. Miembro del Consejo Rector de la Fundación Gabo. Ha sido Knight Fellow en la Universidad de Stanford (1997-1998) y profesor visitante en la Maestría de Periodismo de la Universidad de Berkeley, California (1998-1999). En mayo 2009, obtuvo el Premio a la Libertad de Expresión en Iberoamérica, de Casa América Cataluña (España). En octubre de 2010 recibió el Premio Maria Moors Cabot de la Escuela de Periodismo de la Universidad de Columbia en Nueva York. En 2021 obtuvo el Premio Ortega y Gasset por su trayectoria periodística.

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