CID Gallup: Support for FSLN drops to 16% and 56% disapprove of Ortega's presidency

Daniel Ortega's presidential administration received the disapproval of 56% of Nicaraguans, and only 16% expressed their sympathy for the Sandinista National Liberation Front party, according to the results of the June 2023 survey of the CID Gallup firm.

The numbers confirm a negative trend in the evaluation of the Ortega-Murillo Administration, which has been negatively evaluated in the last three years, reaching its highest negative peaks with 58% in 2022 and 57% in January 2023. According to the same measurement, the dictator's approval fell from 38% in January 2023, to 34%.

The CID Gallup survey was conducted between May 20 and June 5, 2023. It was conducted among 1215 adults through calls to their cell phones. The margin of error is + -2.8% and the confidence level is 95%, according to the public opinion survey datasheet.

The polling firm informed that 46% of the population believes it is “very unlikely” that Ortega will solve the concerns faced by their families, 17% responded “unlikely,” 16% said it was “very likely”, 15% said “somewhat likely,” and 6% said, "Don't Know/Don't Answer". That means that 63% affirm that the dictator can do "little or nothing" to solve their anxieties, and only 16%, the same percentage of FSLN party sympathizers have a lot of hope in the presidential administration.

The survey comes as the Ortega regime completes 16 years and five months in power under the shadow of absolute control of the powers of the State, repression against citizens, the impunity that benefits a circle close to the political power, and a gloomy economic panorama that expels thousands of citizens who seek opportunities in other countries.

The survey adds that 23% of the population qualifies the way Ortega carries out his duties as president as “very bad”, 23% say “bad” and 15% assure that it is “regular”. The impact of bad management translates into a decline in the preferences of the population in the Government party.

FSLN's political base is reduced

The FSLN is in second place with 16%, Citizens for Liberty (CxL) has 3%, others 1%, and the Independent Liberal Party -considered a collaborationist of the ruling party- has only 0.4%.

The historical data of the pollster affirms that the fall of the FSLN's preference has been permanent and increasing. While the ruling party registered 52% of party preferences in 2013, they now total 16%.  This drop can also be seen if we compare 2022 and these data from June 2023, when it fell from 22% to 16%.

The best evaluated

This is the first survey conducted after the release of the 222 political prisoners, which took place last February 9. It is also the first one carried out after the sentencing to 26 years and four months in prison of the Bishop of Matagalpa, Rolando Alvarez Lagos. 

In the same survey, CID Gallup asked about 13 public personalities. The best evaluated are those whom the justice system under Ortega's control turned into political prisoners in the six months leading up to the 2021 presidential elections, in which he reelected himself without electoral competition after imprisoning all his possible competitors.

The list of personalities is headed by two former opposition pre-candidates: Félix Maradiaga has 46% of favorable opinions and 20% unfavorable, and Cristiana Chamorro Barrios has 42% in favor and 21% critical. There is also Juan Sebastián Chamorro with 37% positive and 27% critical, and the peasant leader Medardo Mairena with 34% in favor and 29% against.

The bishop of Matagalpa Rolando Álvarez, who became a political prisoner in August 2022 and was sentenced by the Ortega regime last February, has 35% of favorable opinions and 26% of unfavorable ones.

The religious was condemned by the FSLN justice, one day after he refused to accept the banishment prescribed by Ortega to 222 political prisoners, expelled to the United States. Ortega has intensified his war against the Catholic Church, which he accuses of being a coup leader. The State has closed radio stations, desecrated churches, banned religious processions, and expelled priests and nuns, including the apostolic nuncio Waldemar Stanisław Sommertag.

Fidel Moreno Briones and the mayor of Managua, Reyna Rueda, also stand out in the list of the personalities evaluated with the most favorable opinions. The official has 40% of favorable opinions and 30% unfavorable. He holds the position of political secretary of the FSLN in the capital and at the same time holds an administrative position in the municipality, from where he has been making important financial decisions for years.

Moreno was sanctioned by the United States in July 2018 for his links to repression. The Treasury Department mentioned Ortega's political operator as the liaison between municipal entities and the Sandinista party.

Mayor Rueda accumulates 37% favorable and 26% unfavorable opinions. Foreign Minister Denis Moncada Colindres, one of the main defenders of the dictatorship at the international level, receives 34% of positive opinions, while 29% think badly of him, according to the CID Gallup survey in June 2023.

The worst evaluated

The people with the highest unfavorable opinions are all high-ranking officials of the presidential circle: Ortega leads (56% unfavorable and 31% favorable), followed closely by his wife and vice-president Rosario Murillo, who he has described as his “co-president” (49% unfavorable and 32% favorable); the president of the National Assembly, Gustavo Porras (41% unfavorable and 25% favorable), and the son of the ruling couple, Laureano Ortega Murillo (40% unfavorable and 25% favorable).

Laureano Ortega Murillo serves as the government's liaison with Russia and China, thus gaining prominence within the family structure that is trying to impose a Somoza-like dynasty, in his case, led by Murillo as vice-mandate and constitutional successor.

CID Gallup also obtained an index on the evaluated personalities -resulting from subtracting the percentage of favorable opinions from the unfavorable ones-: Ortega -25%, Murillo obtains -17%, Porras -16%, and Laureano Ortega -13% and they are the worst.

Army General Julio César Avilés, publicly pointed out for turning the Army into one of the pillars of the dictatorship, also appears. CID Gallup indicates that the military chief has a 6% positive index, given that he has 33% of favorable opinions and 27% of unfavorable ones.

This article was originally published in Spanish in Confidencial and translated by our staff.