{"id":191669,"date":"2026-06-30T00:03:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T06:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/daniel-zovatto-why-latin-americas-electoral-pendulum-is-swinging-to-the-right\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T02:12:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:12:07","slug":"daniel-zovatto-why-latin-americas-electoral-pendulum-is-swinging-to-the-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/daniel-zovatto-why-latin-americas-electoral-pendulum-is-swinging-to-the-right\/","title":{"rendered":"Daniel Zovatto: Why Latin America’s Electoral Pendulum Is Swinging to the Right"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With the results of the runoff elections in Peru and Colombia\u2014where Keiko Fujimori and Abelardo de la Espriella won by razor-thin margins of less than 1%\u2014Latin America’s political map will now be dominated by right-wing governments in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic, all aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n

Only Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, and Guatemala\u2014with left-wing or center-left governments\u2014have, for now, escaped this electoral shift to the right. Meanwhile, the dictatorships in Cuba and Nicaragua, along with Venezuela’s Chavista regime, which is under U.S. oversight, represent an extreme form of authoritarianism.<\/p>\n\n

Political scientist Daniel Zovatto, director of Radar Latam 360, argues that three main factors explain the electoral pendulum’s swing toward the right: “a right-wing ideology that resonates more effectively with public discontent, particularly over insecurity and organized crime, as well as corruption scandals, combined with a protest vote driven by the unfulfilled promises of left-wing governments.”<\/p>\n\n

In an interview on the program Esta Semana<\/em>, broadcast on CONFIDENCIAL’s<\/strong> YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Zovatto highlighted the political influence of the “Bukele model” for tackling insecurity at the expense of democracy and the rule of law. He noted that, despite its popularity, the model has not proved effective or replicable elsewhere, as recent experiences in Ecuador and Chile demonstrate.<\/p>\n\n

“President Trump gave his blessing to Bukele’s latest constitutional reform, made possible because Bukele has absolute control of the National Assembly, allowing him to seek unlimited reelection. One way or another, Bukele is one of Trump’s most important allies\u2014he is effectively Trump’s jailer in Central America,” Zovatto said.<\/p>\n\n

“Now that we’re in the middle of the World Cup, the October 4 election in Brazil\u2014between President Lula and far-right candidate Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro\u2014is the final. In other words, it’s the mother of all elections, because what happens in Brazil will have enormous significance not only for Latin America but especially for South America,” Zovatto predicted. <\/p>\n\n

The runoff election results in Peru and Colombia show two countries split almost exactly down the middle politically, with margins of less than 1%\u2014just a few hundred thousand votes\u2014giving victory to the right-wing candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Abelardo de la Espriella. Does this reflect a broader electoral shift to the right in Latin America? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The margin in Colombia\u20140.96%, or about 251,000 votes, where a president-elect has already been declared\u2014is unusual for the country. In Peru, however, the margin was just 0.24%, amounting to little more than 40,000 votes, and there is still no president-elect. Peru has become accustomed to razor-thin election results. The country experienced similarly close runoffs in 2016, 2021, and now again in 2026\u2014all three involving Keiko Fujimori. <\/p>\n\n

On the one hand, these results reveal countries that are almost evenly divided in their support for each candidate. On the other, they foreshadow governance challenges\u2014particularly in Colombia, where the left performed strongly under the Historic Pact, the political coalition led by Petro and Cepeda, which remains relatively cohesive. In Peru, by contrast, the opposition, represented by Roberto S\u00e1nchez, is more fragmented, while Keiko Fujimori enjoys a stronger\u2014though not outright\u2014majority in both chambers of Congress. In both countries, this deep political polarization, combined with the enormous challenges on the governing agenda, points to significant difficulties in governing. <\/p>\n\n

Both elections also reinforce the conclusion that the electoral pendulum is clearly swinging to the right. Since 2023, there have been 16 presidential elections in Latin America. Including Peru and Colombia, right-wing candidates have won 13 of them, albeit representing different strands of the political right. The left has prevailed only in Mexico with Claudia Sheinbaum, in Guatemala with the more moderate center-left government of Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo, and in Uruguay with the return of the left under Yamand\u00fa Orsi. So yes, the region is moving to the right. That is why Brazil’s October 4 election will be so important\u2014it will either confirm or halt what we might call the “blue wave.” Others refer to it as the “orange wave,” a nod to Donald Trump’s signature orange hair, which is increasingly shaping politics across Latin America. <\/p>\n\n

We’ll return later to Trump and Brazil’s elections. But before that, is this rightward electoral shift primarily ideological? Or could it also reflect the failure of left-wing or progressive governments in Honduras, Colombia, Peru, and Chile, to govern effectively and sustain their political projects? <\/strong>If we look back over the past 26 years to the beginning of this century, Latin America is now entering its fourth major electoral cycle. The first 13 years were marked by what became known as the “Pink Tide,” when progressive, left-wing, and center-left governments came to power across much of Latin America. Beginning around 2014\u20132015, that gave way to a wave of right-wing governments. Leaders such as Mauricio Macri in Argentina, Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era in Chile, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in Peru, Iv\u00e1n Duque in Colombia, and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil all came to office during that period. That was followed by a second Pink Tide, although it was neither as long-lasting nor as sweeping as the first. Now we are witnessing the pendulum swinging back to the right once again. <\/p>\n\n

Part of this shift is clearly ideological. These various right-wing movements differ in important ways, but they also share several defining characteristics. Most support the Bukele model of public security. Most advocate reducing government spending along the lines of Javier Milei’s “chainsaw” approach. Most take a more conservative stance on social issues such as gender equality and same-sex marriage. At the same time, they make highly sophisticated use of social media, appealing to emotion rather than policy, and most are closely aligned with President Trump. <\/p>\n\n

But the shift also reflects a protest vote against left-wing and center-left governments. At the beginning of 2023, the six largest economies in Latin America were all governed by left-wing or center-left administrations. What we are seeing now is a backlash. <\/p>\n\n

Between 2018 and 2023, there were 16 consecutive elections in which voters punished incumbent governments. That trend eased somewhat when Santiago Pe\u00f1a secured continuity for the ruling party in Paraguay, when Morena retained power in Mexico, with Bukele’s unconstitutional reelection in El Salvador, with Luis Abinader’s constitutional reelection in the Dominican Republic, and with Daniel Noboa’s reelection in Ecuador. <\/p>\n\n

Overall, I would point to two main factors. First, a right-wing ideology that has been more successful at channeling public discontent and capitalizing on the unmet promises of left-wing governments, which have struggled to address insecurity, organized crime, and recurring corruption scandals. Second, the protest vote against incumbents. Together, these forces explain why the electoral pendulum is swinging to the right. <\/p>\n\n

\"Daniel
Political scientist Daniel Zovatto. \/\/ Photo: IDEA <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

The public security crisis you’ve mentioned seems to be the common thread running through the political platforms of many of these leaders. In some cases there are also anti-immigration campaigns, but the figure who seems to have emerged as the political model\u2014or reference point\u2014is Nayib Bukele. Does Bukele really wield that kind of influence across Latin America, despite having secured an unconstitutional reelection in El Salvador? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

In my view, unfortunately, yes. The Bukele model <\/a>is what I call a Faustian bargain. Bukele says: “I will provide you with security against organized crime, but in return you must give up part of your freedom. We will have to live under a permanent state of emergency. I will harass journalists. I will go after human rights defenders. I want to concentrate all branches of government in my hands. I want to control the legislature and bring the judiciary under my control.” <\/p>\n\n

Many people across Latin America see this as the formula for delivering a swift and effective response to the severe problems of insecurity and crime. In many of the most recent elections, public safety and crime have ranked as either the number one or number two issue for voters in most countries. In our political risk analysis, they rank as the region’s single greatest political risk. <\/p>\n\n

Progressive governments have failed to find an approach that is effective against crime while also respecting human rights, preserving the rule of law, and upholding democratic institutions. As a result, in some cases these concerns barely register. For example, de la Espriella says: “I’m going to apply the Bukele formula\u2014mega-prisons, the military on the streets. I’m going to do exactly the same.” In other countries, however, it’s more complicated. Take Jos\u00e9 Antonio Kast in Chile. People point out that Bukele’s model ultimately weakens democracy, undermines the rule of law, and leads to human rights violations. That is where some of these right-wing movements struggle to reconcile effectiveness with respect for democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. Even so, Bukele’s model is clearly the one gaining the most traction. How much of the legitimacy of that model comes from the political backing provided by Donald Trump? Trump won’t be in power forever, but he is in the second year of his presidency and has forged a particularly close political alliance with Nayib Bukele. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s influence is enormous. It’s also worth remembering that even Costa Rica\u2014a long-established democracy\u2014under then-President Rodrigo Chaves not only invited Bukele to the country, but decorated him with an official honor and held him up as a model for how Costa Rica should fight crime. President Laura Fern\u00e1ndez has now continued along the same path. <\/p>\n\n

On top of that, Trump has given Bukele tremendous international visibility. Bukele was the first Latin American leader Trump received at the White House during his second term. Trump presented him as an example that even the United States should follow. The two also reached an agreement under which Bukele’s mega-prison would effectively serve as a kind of bed-and-breakfast<\/strong><\/em> for people Trump wanted removed from the United States, with Bukele charging a fee for every person sent there\u2014an arrangement that, in many cases, violated U.S. domestic legal standards.<\/p>\n\n

Trump also gave his full blessing to Bukele’s latest constitutional reform. With complete control of the National Assembly, Bukele pushed through changes allowing indefinite reelection. One way or another, he has become one of Trump’s most important allies in Central America. In effect, he has become Trump’s jailer in Central America. Taken together\u2014Bukele’s endorsement by Costa Rica, his growing status as a model for other countries across Latin America, including South America, and the full political backing and blessing he receives from Trump\u2014he represents a genuine danger to democracy. There are four Latin American governments that, for now, remain outside this right-wing bloc, which has also coalesced around what Donald Trump has called the “Shield of the Americas” alliance: Mexico, Guatemala, Brazil, and Uruguay. Do these four countries share a common political identity? Do they represent a coherent political current, or have they simply remained outside the influence of the continent’s rightward shift\u2014for the time being? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Three of the four have a great deal in common. They are part of the progressive bloc whose leaders meet regularly. Until recently, that group also included Gabriel Boric and Gustavo Petro, who is now leaving office. They have held meetings in Latin America, in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, and most recently in Barcelona. Brazil and Mexico, in particular, have developed a close relationship between President Lula and President Sheinbaum. They are also connected to the democratic left’s longstanding tradition in Uruguay, represented in the past by Jos\u00e9 “Pepe” Mujica and Tabar\u00e9 V\u00e1zquez, and now by Yamand\u00fa Orsi. <\/p>\n\n

Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo’s Guatemala, however, is different. I don’t see him playing a leading role because Guatemala remains much more closely aligned with the Trump administration. In fact, just yesterday, the charg\u00e9 d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy outlined the five priorities in the bilateral relationship between the United States and Guatemala: security, the fight against drug trafficking, curbing illegal immigration, infrastructure, trade, and economic growth. There was no mention of human rights, democracy, justice, or the rule of law. So while Guatemala is not governed by the right, it is considerably more aligned with Washington than the other three countries. <\/p>\n\n

Mexico presents another distinct case. Despite its differences with Washington, President Sheinbaum’s room for maneuver is becoming increasingly limited because of the bilateral relationship, the renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement, and U.S. pressure on migration and organized crime.<\/p>\n\n

Lula, by contrast, enjoys greater autonomy. Nearly 38 percent of Brazil’s trade is with China, giving him more room to maneuver and greater leverage. As for Uruguay, President Orsi is trying, as much as possible, to stay below the radar to avoid unnecessary confrontation with Trump. Brazil will hold presidential elections on October 4. Although several candidates are running, the race has effectively narrowed to President Lula, who is seeking another term, and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the political heir to Brazil’s far-right movement. What is at stake for Brazil\u2014and for the Americas\u2014in this election? <\/strong>Now that the World Cup is underway, I’d say this election is the final. It is the mother of all elections, because what happens in Brazil will have enormous consequences\u2014not only for Latin America as a whole, but especially for South America. Assuming that, as I expect, Keiko Fujimori becomes Peru’s next president in mid-July, and with Abelardo de la Espriella already confirmed as Colombia’s president-ele<\/a>ct, a right-wing victory in Brazil would leave virtually all of South America under governments of the right. Setting aside Venezuela\u2014which has effectively become a tutelary regime, and to whose people we express our solidarity as they endure the tragedy of the recent twin earthquakes\u2014Uruguay would be the only left-wing government remaining on the continent. Every other South American country would be governed by one form or another of the political right. <\/p>\n\n

Central America will also hold elections in 2027. In El Salvador, Bukele will almost certainly seek reelection, and under the current conditions he is highly likely to win. Guatemala will also go to the polls, and it remains to be seen whether it too will shift to the right. If that happens, Mexico would be the only major left-wing government left in Latin America, with Uruguay remaining the lone exception in the Southern Cone. <\/p>\n\n

At the moment, Lula holds the advantage. He and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro had been running neck and neck until leaked audio recordings surfaced allegedly linking Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro to imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is accused of orchestrating a massive $10 billion fraud. The revelations have damaged Bolsonaro’s campaign and caused him to slip in the polls. There are still several months to go. Lula is now 80 years old and has recently been diagnosed with skin cancer. It is not considered serious, but the campaign is likely to continue evolving. As things stand today, Lula appears better positioned to retain the presidency. If he succeeds, it is worth remembering that, since 2023, the only left-wing government to successfully retain power through an election has been Mexico’s Morena party under Claudia Sheinbaum, following Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador. Brazil will therefore be the crucial test of whether the Latin American left can still remain electorally competitive. You mentioned the tragedy Venezuela is experiencing as a result of the two earthquakes. It is a moment of grief and solidarity with a country where all attention is focused on saving lives, rescue efforts, reconstruction, and also on how interim President Delcy Rodr\u00edguez will handle this crisis. It’s inevitable to ask: could this national tragedy accelerate the push for elections if the goal is to rebuild the country, or is it more likely to delay them even further? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

First of all, I want to join all those who have expressed their solidarity and send a heartfelt embrace to our Venezuelan audience, because what is happening there is truly devastating. In Argentina, we have a saying: it’s raining on wet ground\u2014meaning disaster has piled upon disaster. <\/p>\n\n

Marco Rubio had said that the process of democratic recovery would unfold in three stages: first, stabilization; second, recovery; and third, a transition to democracy. The concern before the twin earthquakes was that the stabilization phase had already taken place, but that the recovery phase would leave in place a regime that remains completely subservient\u2014a kind of protectorate\u2014under the Rodr\u00edguez siblings, with Delcy Rodr\u00edguez serving as president and her brother Jorge Rodr\u00edguez presiding over the National Assembly, while much of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro’s old administration, including Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, remained in office. The risk was that the process would become bogged down and that the transition to democracy would never materialize. Rubio offered only one example of the kind of transition he had in mind: Spain’s, which unfolded over several years, beginning with the government of Adolfo Su\u00e1rez and later followed by Felipe Gonz\u00e1lez. <\/p>\n\n

I don’t know what effect this disaster will ultimately have. Major earthquakes or other catastrophic natural disasters can sometimes strengthen the government already in power\u2014provided it demonstrates competence, empathy, and an effective response to the needs of the population. Think of the earthquake several years ago in Turkey and Syria: in a very different context, it ultimately strengthened Erdo\u011fan’s position. Of course, that was an established government, whereas this is a transitional administration. On the other hand, if the government mishandles the crisis, it could accelerate its political erosion. We’ll have to see how events unfold over the coming weeks and months. <\/p>\n\n

Regardless of what happens, however, even if Delcy Rodr\u00edguez’s transitional government\u2014operating under U.S. oversight\u2014manages the reconstruction effectively, pressure for a democratic transition must continue unabated. Venezuela cannot be allowed to settle into a normalized form of authoritarian rule, even if it enjoys the approval of the Trump administration. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the results of the runoff elections in Peru and Colombia\u2014where Keiko Fujimori and Abelardo de la Espriella won by razor-thin margins of less than 1%\u2014Latin America’s political map will now be dominated by right-wing governments in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, and the Dominican Republic, all aligned with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":191666,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDaniel Zovatto: Why Latin America's Electoral Pendulum Is Swinging to the Right - Confidencial<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Right-wing ideology, public concern over insecurity, and a protest vote against left-wing governments. 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