{"id":187748,"date":"2026-04-23T11:48:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T17:48:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/economy-of-discontent-behind-the-mirage-of-the-ortega-regimes-economic-well-being\/"},"modified":"2026-04-27T02:17:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T08:17:07","slug":"economy-of-discontent-behind-the-mirage-of-the-ortega-regimes-economic-well-being","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/economy-of-discontent-behind-the-mirage-of-the-ortega-regimes-economic-well-being\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cEconomy of Discontent\u201d: Behind the Mirage of the Ortega Regime&#8217;s Economic Well-Being"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Ortega regime&#8217;s macroeconomic narrative is full of contradictions. A growing gross domestic product (GDP), without formal employment expanding at a similar pace. A country where the cost of living is lower than in the rest of Central America, yet its citizens earn less. Remittances that support thousands of families, but <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/banco-central-oculta-el-aporte-de-las-remesas-a-la-economia-de-nicaragua\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">disappear from official statistics<\/a>. All of this stems from the mirage of macroeconomic figures that conceal the reality of widespread discontent among most Nicaraguans.    <\/p>\n\n<p>What this illusion tries to hide is the existence of an \u201ceconomy of discontent,\u201d in which the country produces enough food, yet citizens cannot afford to buy it in sufficient quantities. At the same time, the small circle that supports the regime\u2014now led by Rosario Murillo and her husband and co-president Daniel Ortega\u2014becomes disproportionately wealthy. <\/p>\n\n<p>The regime \u201cdoes not offer future alternatives for the population.\u201d Instead, it seeks to consolidate its economic power base, according to the study \u201cEconomy of Discontent,\u201d prepared by economist Marco Aurelio Pe\u00f1a for the Center for Transdisciplinary Studies of Central America (CETCAM). <\/p>\n\n<p><em>Luciano<\/em> is one example. This driver, who requested anonymity as a condition for speaking with <strong>CONFIDENCIAL<\/strong>, left Nicaragua and traveled to Costa Rica in search of a better-paying job, and found one. After some time in the neighboring country to the south, nostalgia for the family he had left behind led him to return home, to work as a taxi driver.   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cThe economic situation here in Nicaragua is bad. Everything is expensive, and people don\u2019t want to pay what a taxi ride is worth. If this continues, I might go back to Costa Rica,\u201d he said. There are many like him in the country. People who complain, even if they don\u2019t know the term, about living in an economy of discontent like Nicaragua\u2019s.<br\/>   <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ortega-el-buen-alumno\">Ortega, the \u201cmodel student\u201d<\/h2>\n\n<p>The regime consistently <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/fmi-vuelve-a-avalar-robusto-crecimiento-economico-pero-alerta-riesgos-a-la-baja\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">receives good marks from the International Monetary Fund<\/a>, which it later showcases to argue that it is managing the economy well. The opposition, in turn, disputes those assessments, pointing to gaps and weaknesses in the country\u2019s economic reality. Beyond the usual explanations and the diplomatically ambiguous language often used in such evaluations, economist Pe\u00f1a offers a clarification: the IMF works with official figures. It is therefore unsurprising that the regime receives such positive reviews if the assessment is based on its own data.   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cThe official macroeconomy has been well rated by IMF technical missions in variables such as economic growth expectations, the level of monetary reserves, and the strength of the financial system. However, this macroeconomic snapshot appears unrealistic when contrasted with the economic realities of individuals and communities,\u201d the author warns.<\/p>\n\n<p>He adds that these technical reports create a \u201cmirage effect\u201d that conceals people\u2019s real living conditions. Pe\u00f1a contrasts the upbeat figures the regime uses to praise itself with the reality faced by small farmers, informal workers, entrepreneurs, the self-employed, and independent professionals, for whom money simply does not stretch far enough, whether they are managing their households or running small subsistence businesses.  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cNicaragua\u2019s economy during the 2023\u20132025 period has combined a peculiar state of macroeconomic stability with an economy of discontent. It is a paradoxical situation,\u201d Pe\u00f1a explains.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-suben-los-salarios-pero-la-canasta-basica-es-inalcanzable\">Wages rise, but the basic food basket remains out of reach<\/h2>\n\n<p>Between 2021 and 2025, the average nominal salary increased by 3,634 c\u00f3rdobas. That represents a 30% rise and, in fact, a slight improvement compared to the increase in the cost of the basic food basket, which rose by 28% over the same period. From any perspective, however, those two percentage points are not enough to reverse the situation in the short term.<br\/>  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cThe data show that <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/salario-minimo-no-da-para-comprar-todos-los-alimentos-de-la-canasta-basica-en-nicaragua\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wage levels are not sufficient to cover the cost of the basic food basket<\/a>. The gap is deeply concerning, since even if people allocate 100% of their regular income, they still cannot afford a basic basket of 53 products,\u201d explains the study\u2019s author. \u201cIn this economy of discontent, even the essentials become unaffordable for many people,\u201d he adds.  <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-se-produce-suficientes-alimentos-pero-no-hay-para-comprarlos\">Enough food is produced, but people can\u2019t afford to buy it<\/h2>\n\n<p>Nicaragua is largely self-sufficient in most basic food categories. With the exception of rice, the country produces enough beans, beef, sugar, corn, and cheese to meet domestic demand\u2014and still has a surplus for export. Despite this, between December 2020 and <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/mas-del-70-de-los-nicaraguenses-no-cubren-sus-gastos-mensuales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">December 2025<\/a>, the \u201cFood\u201d component of the basic food basket increased by 53%, while the overall basket rose by only 43.3% over the same period.  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cTherefore, it is the food component that structurally drives the rising cost of the basic consumption basket, eroding the real income of households, since it accounts for 71% of the total cost of the basket in 2025. This means that with a 500-c\u00f3rdoba bill, people can buy less food than before,\u201d the expert explains.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-el-mas-barato-el-mas-caro\">The cheapest and the most expensive <\/h2>\n\n<p>Nicaragua is the cheapest country in Central America. Anyone who has traveled across two or more countries in the region can confirm this, as can anyone who looks at official data. And yet, people feel that their money isn\u2019t enough, even for basic needs. Nor to aspire to owning a car, paying for private education for their children, traveling, or buying a home.      <\/p>\n\n<p>\u201cGiven the erosion of purchasing power driven by the cost of the basic food basket, the country feels expensive\u2014not because prices are comparatively high, but because <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/aprueban-un-aumento-del-4-en-el-salario-minimo-de-nicaragua\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wages are low<\/a>,\u201d Pe\u00f1a concludes. The result is a downgrading of consumption: families opt for lower-quality goods at more affordable prices,<em> <\/em>consume more carbohydrates and fewer proteins, and buy smaller quantities.  <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-el-espejismo-estadistico-del-pleno-empleo\">The statistical mirage of full employment<\/h2>\n\n<p>According to Nicaragua\u2019s Central Bank, around 97% of people are employed. This, despite the structural weaknesses and lagging development of the Nicaraguan economy, where roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/opinion\/la-administracion-de-la-pobreza-es-la-receta-economica-de-la-dictadura\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">70% of economic activity is considered informal<\/a>. This leads the economist to argue that \u201cone of the best-kept mysteries is the empirical basis on which official figures claim that <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/inide-maquilla-las-cifras-de-desempleo-en-nicaragua\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the country has full employment.\u201d<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n<p>Not even the two largest economies in Central America\u2014Panama and Costa Rica\u2014<s> <\/s> claim to have reached those levels of employment. \u201cThese \u2018overly optimistic figures\u2019 [from the Central Bank] defy common sense because they do not match the reality of people searching for job opportunities. Employment levels depend on the degree of a country\u2019s economic expansion,\u201d he noted. <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-crece-la-inversion-extranjera-pero-no-los-empleos\">Foreign investment grows, but jobs do not<\/h2>\n\n<p>Between 2023 and 2024, 11,926 new jobs were created in the country (based on data from the Nicaraguan Social Security Institute, INSS), while foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 238.4 million dollars. But a decade earlier, between 2014 and 2015, 63,338 new jobs were created with an increase of just 65.8 million dollars in FDI. These figures lead the economist to question how it was possible that, with 3.6 times less foreign investment, 5.3 times more formal jobs were created.  <\/p>\n\n<p>Pe\u00f1a offers another data point to illustrate this paradox. The number of contributors to the INSS in 2024 stood at 802,814. That figure is lower than the 857,219 formal jobs recorded in 2016, \u201cshowing an employment lag of approximately ten years,\u201d he explained.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Ortega regime&#8217;s macroeconomic narrative is full of contradictions. A growing gross domestic product (GDP), without formal employment expanding at a similar pace. A country where the cost of living is lower than in the rest of Central America, yet its citizens earn less. Remittances that support thousands of families, but disappear from official statistics. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":133065,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-187748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nicaragua is a \u201cricher\u201d country, but its people remain poor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nicaragua\u2019s macroeconomic stability paints the picture of a wealthier country, but wages remain low, the basic food basket is unaffordable, and employment figures are unreliable\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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