{"id":184585,"date":"2026-03-07T00:10:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-07T06:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/ortega-and-murillo-watch-the-u-s-iran-war-from-under-the-table\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T18:07:45","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:07:45","slug":"ortega-and-murillo-watch-the-u-s-iran-war-from-under-the-table","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/ortega-and-murillo-watch-the-u-s-iran-war-from-under-the-table\/","title":{"rendered":"Ortega and Murillo Watch the U.S.\u2013Iran War \u201cFrom Under the Table\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

One day after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Nicaragua\u2019s \u201cco-president,\u201d Rosario Murillo, offered her \u201ccondolences\u201d without much fuss. She did not condemn the events or lash out against the United States, as she often does both publicly and privately. Instead, analysts say, she spoke \u201cas if a natural disaster had occurred.\u201d The reaction does not match the magnitude of what happened, especially given that it involved the invasion of one of his political allies: Iran.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n

\u201cOur sincere condolences to the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the martyrdom of its people and of Ayatollah Khamenei and his family as well, as our comrade Ram\u00f3n Moncada (Nicaragua\u2019s ambassador) told us. And united before God, we present ourselves with humility, always urging peace, peace and goodness,\u201d Murillo said briefly during her monologue on March 2, 2026.<\/p>\n\n

Meanwhile, the \u201cco-president,\u201d Daniel Ortega, chose to remain silent. His only public gesture was placing his signature\u2014alongside Murillo\u2019s\u2014on a brief statement condemning \u201call forms of war\u201d and calling on God for \u201cthe miracle of peace.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

His silence in the face of this situation, economist Enrique S\u00e1enz warns, places him \u201cunder the table watching the storm pass by.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

The cautious reaction from Nicaragua\u2019s regime is not accidental and has not gone unnoticed, especially because Ortega and Murillo have maintained an alliance with the ayatollahs since 1979, when both declared themselves \u201ctwin revolutions.\u201d Analysts warn that the dictators are trying to avoid becoming the focus of attention for the United States, which has recently \u201celiminated\u201d leaders of nations it considers problematic. <\/p>\n\n

What is happening in Iran and previously, with the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, in Venezuela<\/a>, sends “a very clear message to Ortega and the Nicaraguan military leadership”, warns lawyer and former congressman Eliseo N\u00fa\u00f1ez. \u201cThis is not about invasion or war. What is now on the table is selective elimination. That places Ortega, the Army, and everyone else in a position of enormous fear,\u201d he says. <\/p>\n\n

He adds that there has been a \u201cdramatic shift\u201d in the military methods being applied by the United States. \u201cBefore, the probability of death for the Army\u2019s top command was low, while the highest probability was for the soldier going to war. Now that\u2019s no longer the case.\u201d This change, he says, \u201cmust be analyzed very carefully by the presidential couple, as well as by the Army itself.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

The End of the \u201cTwin Revolutions\u201d<\/h2>\n\n

Despite waving the banner of the \u201ctwin revolutions\u201d for four decades, neither Daniel Ortega, Rosario Murillo, nor the Nicaraguan Army are willing to confront the United States at this moment, according to analysts. That \u201cdoes not mean they are going to give in,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez warns. \u201cIt mainly means they believe they must do whatever is necessary to survive over time.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

S\u00e1enz believes Ortega and Murillo\u2019s current strategy is \u201cuncertain.\u201d They may be trying to \u201cride out the storm under the table,\u201d keeping as low a profile as possible while buying time.<\/p>\n\n

He also notes that Nicaragua\u2019s dictators have shown considerable skill in reading the contradictions of the moment and adjusting their stance whenever it suits them.<\/p>\n\n

He also believes that the Ortega-Murillo regime is going through “its highest level of vulnerability” since returning to power in 2007, due to the “forcefulness” of the Donald Trump Administration and because its “strategic alliance” with countries such as Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Russia<\/a>, and China has “fallen apart”.<\/p>\n\n

According to the economist, the alliance of the \u201ctwin revolutions\u201d was largely \u201cpolitical rhetoric\u201d and reflected Ortega\u2019s desire to portray himself as a major international player, a global leader and member of a grand alliance confronting \u201cthe empire.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

An Ideological But Not Economic Link<\/h2>\n\n

In June 2023, during a visit to Managua by Iran\u2019s then-president Ebrahim Raisi<\/a>, the two governments signed three memoranda of understanding. Among them was the creation of a Joint Intergovernmental Commission for economic, trade, and scientific cooperation. <\/p>\n\n

The political alliance was reaffirmed in February 2025, when Laureano Ortega Murillo \u2014 son of the co-presidents Ortega and Murillo and the government official in charge of diplomatic and trade relations \u2014 said that Nicaragua and Iran maintain a political and ideological alliance against what he called \u201cthe empire,\u201d referring to the United States.<\/p>\n\n

However, bilateral trade between Managua and Tehran is almost nonexistent, according to data from Nicaragua\u2019s Central Bank. Of Nicaragua\u2019s twenty main export products in 2025, the only purchase made by Iran was 19,300 kilograms of coffee, for which it paid 129,500 dollars in May. <\/p>\n\n

The value of that coffee shipment is minimal compared with the 918.4 million dollars Nicaragua earned from its global coffee exports in 2025.<\/p>\n\n

Meanwhile, Nicaragua\u2019s import statistics show no purchases from Iran. <\/p>\n\n

Journalistic reports indicate that in 2012 Iran allegedly forgave Nicaragua a debt of 164 million dollars<\/a> that had been incurred during Ortega\u2019s first government in the 1980s. The original loan was 58 million dollars but grew to 164 million due to accumulated interest. However, the Central Bank of Nicaragua\u2019s reports on external public debt contain no record of any debt owed to Iran, nor of any such debt having been forgiven by the Persian country. <\/p>\n\n

Grand Promises, No Investment<\/h2>\n\n

The anti-imperialist rhetoric also failed to translate into tangible economic cooperation. In 2007, following a visit to Nicaragua by Iran\u2019s then-president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, several international cooperation agreements were announced. These agreements were formalized months later during a meeting between Ortega and Iran\u2019s then-energy minister, Hamid Chitchian. <\/p>\n\n

Among the various projects announced was a supposed joint investment by Iran and Venezuela to build a deep-water port on Nicaragua\u2019s Caribbean coast. It was the first \u201cpharaonic\u201d project promised by Ortega after returning to power, according to the report Many promises and no investments, <\/em><\/a>published <\/em>by CONFIDENCIAL <\/strong>in 2022. <\/p>\n\n

Nineteen years later, the deep-water port remains on the long list of major projects announced by the Ortega government that never moved beyond the planning stage. Of the other projects agreed upon in the 2007 agreements, the only one that materialized was the construction of a polyclinic in Villa Libertad, Managua. <\/p>\n\n

However, in early May 2022, Ortega, already entrenched as a dictator ,appeared alongside Iran\u2019s oil minister, Javab Owji, to announce the signing of new cooperation agreements.This time the list was much shorter than in 2007, but it still included a new grand promise: resuming construction of the El Supremo Sue\u00f1o de Bol\u00edvar refinery, the flagship project originally promised by the late Venezuelan strongman Hugo Ch\u00e1vez Fr\u00edas. <\/p>\n\n

In addition to restarting construction of the refinery, the agreements included a deal to supply fuel to Nicaragua, to be paid for through a compensation or barter mechanism using Nicaraguan products. None of that has been fulfilled. <\/p>\n\n

An Alliance to Evade Sanctions<\/h2>\n\n

For N\u00fa\u00f1ez and S\u00e1enz, the most valuable contribution the Iranian regime may have offered the Ortega-Murillo government was teaching them how to evade international sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on regime officials and companies linked to the ruling family over human rights violations.<\/p>\n\n

\u201cIran has been under sanctions for 47 years, so it has developed an entire model for evading sanctions, both from Europe and from the United States. That know-how was passed on to Ortega and his family,\u201d N\u00fa\u00f1ez explains.<\/p>\n\n

The former lawmaker adds that Russia and Iran have unsuccessfully tried to create a banking system parallel to the Basel system, which is the one used internationally. \u201cThey tried to do it through the BRICS, but they couldn\u2019t because of pressure from the United States and because of market realities.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One day after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Nicaragua\u2019s \u201cco-president,\u201d Rosario Murillo, offered her \u201ccondolences\u201d without much fuss. She did not condemn the events or lash out against the United States, as she often does both publicly and privately. Instead, analysts say, she spoke \u201cas if a natural disaster had occurred.\u201d The reaction does […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":184478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-184585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOrtega and Murillo Watch the U.S.\u2013Iran War \u201cFrom Under the Table\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite waving the banner of the \u201ctwin revolutions\u201d for 40 years, Ortega and Murillo have not defended Iran\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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