{"id":183832,"date":"2026-02-17T00:12:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T06:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/cubas-dilemma-resistance-collapse-or-negotiation\/"},"modified":"2026-02-23T08:50:24","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T14:50:24","slug":"cubas-dilemma-resistance-collapse-or-negotiation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/cubas-dilemma-resistance-collapse-or-negotiation\/","title":{"rendered":"Cuba\u2019s Dilemma: Resistance, Collapse or Negotiation?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cuban historian Rafael Rojas, researcher and professor at El Colegio de M\u00e9xico, believes that given the worsening crisis Cuba is facing under the oil siege<\/a> imposed by Donald Trump and reinforced by the executive order of January 29, 2026, \u201cmigratory pressure toward a mass exodus, or a social explosion, are within the realm of reasonable expectations of what could happen in the coming weeks and months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

\u201cIf there is a social explosion, one would expect the Cuban Government\u2019s habitual way of reacting with repression and orders for mass arrests and imprisonments. In that case, the possibility of an (US) intervention becomes more tangible,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n\n

In a conversation with the program Esta Semana,<\/em> broadcast on CONFIDENCIAL\u2019s YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Rojas analyzed different scenarios for overcoming the crisis of Cuba\u2019s revolutionary model, after 67 years of wear and tear and now under \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d from the Trump Administration.<\/p>\n\n

Cuba has proposed dialogue with the United States to expand cooperation on issues tied to Trump\u2019s hemispheric security strategy (illegal migration, counternarcotics, terrorism, security). But it is not ruled out that, in exchange for economic cooperation and suspension of the embargo, the United States would demand profound political changes in the \u201cCuban model\u201d \u2014 something Havana has never been willing to consider.<\/p>\n\n

Between these two options \u2014 which could lead to regime collapse or capitulation \u2014 a sector of Cuban society proposes resuming a political and economic reform agenda postponed since 2011. But the hardline wing of the Communist Party and the military, Rojas says, demands \u201cclosing ranks\u201d with Miguel Diaz-Canel\u2019s Government and instead imposing a \u201ccounter-reform.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

Cuba was already going through a severe energy crisis since last year. What impact has the closing of the Venezuelan oil spigot \u2014 imposed by the United States \u2014 and Trump\u2019s executive order threatening tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba had on the economy and daily life?<\/strong>Trump\u2019s executive order of January 29 adds to a depression in Cuba\u2019s economic and social indicators that has been unfolding since 2021, when that social explosion occurred \u2014 a series of mass protests across the island.Since then, there has been an enormous drop in productivity and GDP, shortages of basic food and medicines, inflation, a fall in the real minimum wage, impoverishment, rising inequality, and worsening living conditions. <\/p>\n\n

The executive order comes in the context of the suspension of Venezuelan oil subsidies after the US military operation in Caracas on January 3. The decline of Venezuelan subsidies over the last five years even led Mexico to replace Venezuela as Cuba\u2019s main fuel supplier last year. <\/p>\n\n

What is the situation right now? What oil reserves does Cuba have before a total paralysis occurs? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Energy specialists on Cuba, such as Professor Jorge Pi\u00f1\u00f3n, argue that Cuba has domestic fuel production sufficient to supply up to 40% of the infrastructure and economic needs. President Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel said on February 5 that there has been no external oil supply since December. However, in Mexico there was talk of shipments during the first 15 days of January. In the last month, the Cuban Government has been self-supplying oil at that pace it produces. What is under debate is the concept of collapse. Cuban economists, sociologists, and demographers \u2014 especially amid rising mass emigration \u2014 have used that concept for years, since the 2021 protests. But now collapse refers to national paralysis due to energy shortages. That said, total paralysis would never occur, because the Government could endure with self-supply, although 40% or below. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Cuban historian and researcher Rafael Rojas. Photo: Cubaencuentro <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

This crisis is also hitting tourism, especially Canadian tourism, which represents over 60% of visitors. How do blackouts, transportation limits, and access to basic services affect daily life? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The economic model consolidated in the first quarter of the 21st century \u2014 built on the collaboration scheme between Venezuela and Cuba promoted by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez and rests on external oil subsidies and the concentration of development planning on tourism and family remittances.<\/p>\n\n

Maintaining either income stream requires, on the one hand, oil subsidies, and on the other, good relations with the United States so sanctions don\u2019t affect remittances.<\/p>\n\n

Those two sources of income for the Cuban economy \u2014 tourism and remittances \u2014 are now being severely affected by the crisis. As a result, the Cuban state is facing the prospect of declining revenues which, combined with reduced oil supplies, not only limits the government\u2019s ability to meet its international financial obligations but also its capacity to keep the country\u2019s economic and social life functioning. One of the sectors immediately impacted by this energy blockade facing Cuba is the electricity sector, but also health services, education, and water supply \u2014 the systems needed to keep hospitals and schools operating, as well as businesses, factories, and public transportation. <\/p>\n\n

Compared with past crises \u2014 the 1962 Missile Crisis, the 1990s \u201cSpecial Period,\u201d the 2021 protests \u2014 what does today represent with the loss of Venezuelan subsidies and the new aggressive policy of the Trump administration? <\/strong>In recent weeks, a frequently invoked comparison has been with the \u201cSpecial Period\u201d and the \u201cZero Option,\u201d as a moment very similar to the present one was called in the 1990s. At that time, Cuba faced both the U.S. trade embargo and the loss of its ties to the Soviet Union and the Eastern European socialist states during the Cold War \u2014 which had been the main buyers of Cuban sugar \u2014 producing a crisis similar to today\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n

The difference is that Cuba was once one of the world\u2019s main sugar producers for the CMEA market \u2014 the socialist countries \u2014 whereas today that is no longer the case, because Cuba no longer has a productive resource like sugar positioned in the global market. What Cuba can offer in a moment of energy shortages is tourism and remittances, two sources of income that are directly affected by this escalating dispute with the government of Donald Trump. In the span of a week, the United States has effectively become the only option Cuba has to secure a stable energy supply and to maintain \u2014 and even increase \u2014 the flow of remittances from the Cuban diaspora in a regular way that would have a meaningful impact on the island\u2019s economy. Donald Trump himself has promoted speculation and various accounts about alleged talks and negotiations with the Cuban regime. Is there any evidence that negotiations actually exist? And if that were the case, what would the United States be seeking in such negotiations with Cuba? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

I have not read any report that provides concrete evidence of negotiations between the governments of Cuba and the United States. What we have heard in recent weeks are statements by Cuba\u2019s Deputy Foreign Minister, Carlos Fern\u00e1ndez de Coss\u00edo, in which he has referred to conversations and exchanges of messages at the highest level. We have also seen statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating that Cuba is offering to deepen its cooperation with the United States in a number of areas that are very important to Washington\u2019s new hemispheric security strategy \u2014 or the so-called DonRoe Doctrine \u2014 including combating drug trafficking, human trafficking, and illegal migration in the Greater Caribbean, as well as cooperation on cybersecurity, counterterrorism, and a proposal for far-reaching collaboration in maritime and border security in the region. <\/p>\n\n

It is true that these are areas in which there has been cooperation in the past, but the Cuban government is now offering to deepen that cooperation with the United States. At the same time, Havana is also calling for global solidarity with Cuba, drawing parallels between the island\u2019s situation and that of Gaza, seeking international impact \u2014 particularly at the media and ideological level \u2014 in denouncing what it portrays as U.S. harassment or hostility. Alongside this outward-facing discourse, there is also a strong emphasis domestically on the Cuban people\u2019s capacity for sacrifice, on the revolution\u2019s ideological intransigence, and on the assertion that Cuba will not negotiate with the United States under conditions of pressure or political preconditions. <\/p>\n\n

The United States is focusing on issues that, according to Cuba, align with its own agenda \u2014 anti-migration policies, deportations, drug trafficking, and also rare minerals. Or is promoting political change, or regime change in Cuba, also part of its agenda?<\/strong>We do not know; that is part of the uncertainty. Marco Rubio, for example, has made statements favorable to regime change, but has always insisted that the United States would not be directly involved in such an agenda. He has said that lifting the embargo would require regime change, but that regime change is not on the immediate policy agenda of the United States. <\/p>\n\n

However, it is very difficult to understand the Trump administration\u2019s policy of maximum pressure through an energy blockade without linking it to expectations that another social uprising like the one in 2021 could occur, disrupting domestic stability on the island and potentially leading to some form of military intervention in one of its possible modalities. It is difficult to rule that out. Given this increase in pressure, the shortages, and the possibility of social unrest, there is no clarity about what the United States\u2019 negotiating agenda \u2014 or regime-change agenda \u2014 would be. <\/p>\n\n

I imagine that if this offer from the Cuban Foreign Ministry to deepen cooperation on security issues in the Greater Caribbean is received positively by some sector of Donald Trump\u2019s government, other demands would be made in return. The Trump administration would currently be in a position to offer what Cuba most needs \u2014 energy supply. But naturally, in exchange, it would demand other concessions beyond the expanded hemispheric security cooperation that Havana is offering. From the perspective of the Cuban regime, deep political and economic reforms that could address the crisis of the Cuban model have been ruled out or postponed for decades and were never implemented. Are these postponed reforms part of the options available to the regime today, or is the only option left to resist or capitulate? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

We do not know that either. In recent weeks, reformist groups on the island \u2014 particularly economists, sociologists, and demographers \u2014 have relaunched their reform proposals on various digital platforms and are advocating a return to the reform path. These proposals are well developed at different levels: some are more radical or far-reaching in academic circles, while others had been accepted by Ra\u00fal Castro\u2019s government between 2011 and 2016, precisely when diplomatic normalization with Barack Obama began. Later, however, a Party plenum reversed that entire reform project. These reformist sectors \u2014 including diplomats, politicians, and figures from the economic and commercial spheres in Cuba \u2014 are proposing a return to that reform agenda. The response from the more ideological wing of the Cuban bureaucracy is that demanding reforms now amounts to capitulation, and that the priority should instead be to close ranks behind the D\u00edaz-Canel government and maintain the counter-reformist line. In fact, a new development plan has just been launched along the same counter-reformist lines of recent years. The Cuban government\u2019s response to the idea that reform could be an element of negotiation is therefore opposed to that option. <\/p>\n\n

Where does the Cuban people stand in this crisis? Is a mass exodus or large-scale migration likely if no solution emerges? Are there prospects for new popular protests as a result of the widespread blackouts and lack of access to services, or does the regime have sufficient support for its strategy of resistance and non-concession? <\/strong>Both scenarios \u2014 a mass exodus or migratory pressure, and a social uprising \u2014 fall within the range of reasonable expectations for what could happen in Cuba in the coming weeks and months. In the case of a mass exodus, there are a number of new restrictions that did not exist in the 1990s during the Special Period and the Zero Option, nor in the early decades of the 21st century when the last attempts at large-scale maritime exodus occurred. U.S. laws today are different; they are restrictive toward illegal migration by sea. Other irregular migration routes by land \u2014 traveling to Nicaragua,<\/a> Ecuador, other Central American countries, and Mexico in order to make the journey to the U.S. border \u2014 are also closing. The government of Daniel Ortega recently decided to impose visa requirements on prospective Cuban migrants.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n

The visa-free policy had been used during the years of the 2021 and 2022 protests by thousands of Cubans to reach Nicaragua and then travel north through Central America, cross Mexico, and enter the United States overland. Those pathways are now closing, and as the prospects for a successful mass exodus diminish, the likelihood of a social explosion or a wave of protests increases even further. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Tourists ride in classic cars in front of a mural by artist Fuster in Jaimanitas, Havana (Cuba). EFE | Confidencial <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

How have Cubans reacted to Nicaragua\u2019s suspension of visa-free entry? In a column you wrote and that we published in CONFIDENCIAL, you say that Daniel Ortega is showing solidarity with Donald Trump. Why? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

It is ironic, of course, because the decision taken by the Nicaraguan government aligns with what Donald Trump<\/a> and Secretary of State Rubio have been demanding in recent years \u2014 namely, to restrict as much as possible irregular migration of Cubans, Venezuelans, and Haitians through Central America and Mexico. In that sense, it must have been a measure well received by the Trump administration; that is why I refer to it as \u201csolidarity.\u201d Mexico, as you mentioned, and also Chile, are calling for humanitarian aid for Cuba. But what is the scale of this humanitarian crisis? Is it a short-term phenomenon caused by the oil embargo, or a structural problem? <\/strong>The idea of collapse has been appearing in analyses of the deterioration of Cuba\u2019s economic and social indicators since 2021 and 2022. Another term used by academics on the island is polycrisis. They use it because it is a structural crisis in every sense \u2014 economic, social, political, external and internal income, and budgetary. It has been incubating over recent years and is now reaching its climax with the oil blockade \u2014 or perhaps not entirely, since it remains to be seen how long the Cuban government can survive with 40% or less energy self-sufficiency and this call for resistance. <\/p>\n\n

In effect, the humanitarian crisis is not new, although it has clearly intensified. What I observe as new is that Cuba\u2019s international relations with left-leaning Latin American governments are now based on recognizing a humanitarian crisis. In other words, Cuba no longer circulates among governments such as Claudia Sheinbaum\u2019s in Mexico, Lula\u2019s in Brazil, Orsi\u2019s in Uruguay, or Boric\u2019s in Chile as a model \u2014 as the Revolution or socialism \u2014 but as a country experiencing a humanitarian crisis, much as Haiti has been perceived for decades. Obviously, there are emotional and ideological factors tied to the historical experience of the Cuban Revolution and its regional role that also shape this diagnosis. But this also leads to differences in how solidarity is expressed. The Boric government, for example, insists that humanitarian aid should not be delivered directly from the Chilean government to the Cuban government, but rather through international organizations such as UNICEF. By contrast, President Sheinbaum \u2014 I believe in order to satisfy pro-Cuba sectors within the ruling Morena party \u2014 is defending a form of humanitarian aid delivered through direct government-to-government relations. During the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 32 Cuban officers and soldiers were killed in military actions. What impact did this have in Cuba, and what is happening with the Cuban military and security presence in Venezuela \u2014 does it remain, has it withdrawn, or is it also part of negotiations with the United States? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The deaths of those 32 Cuban military personnel in the January 3 operation in Caracas were treated as a period of mourning by the Cuban government. Funeral honors were held on the island, and for at least a week the official press focused heavily on that mourning before shifting to other strategies. Something that was not apparent at first but has since begun to gain ground on official Cuban social media is a negative perception \u2014 even rejection \u2014 of how Delcy Rodr\u00edguez\u2019s government is conducting its negotiations with the United States; at times, the term \u201cbetrayal\u201d is even used. Overall, a very critical and negative perception is becoming dominant, including criticism of the cold manner in which Rodr\u00edguez\u2019s government has handled the issue of the 32 Cuban soldiers killed in Caracas. <\/p>\n\n

Regarding military cooperation with Venezuela, I do not have firsthand information. However, I would expect an accelerated deterioration of that relationship, just as cooperation in public health \u2014 including the deployment of Cuban professionals in education and sports \u2014 is also rapidly deteriorating.<\/p>\n\n

How long could this crisis last? I assume that from Cuba\u2019s perspective they want to hold out until Donald Trump\u2019s midterm elections in the United States, but on the other hand Trump has many tools to exert pressure on Cuba. <\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n

Indeed, I believe that is the Cuban government\u2019s strategy: to hold out until November and hope that an unfavorable outcome for Republicans in the U.S. midterm elections \u2014 and a reshaping of Congress \u2014 could lead to a reversal of the January 29 executive order and a change in the climate of extreme hostility seen in recent months. That is the government\u2019s bet, and between now and November this campaign of solidarity with Cuba will try to advance as much as possible within networks of the Democratic Party in the United States. We may even see in the coming months something that has happened before, though not with the same intensity or emphasis \u2014 a Cuban intervention in a U.S. electoral process, meaning efforts to place the island\u2019s situation on the Democrats\u2019 electoral agenda ahead of the November vote. <\/p>\n\n

Is a crisis in Cuba triggered by the United States possible? I assume Washington must weigh the consequences of provoking a collapse in Cuba. <\/strong>It would be very risky for the Trump administration. Trump\u2019s popularity is low, and there are unfavorable projections for both him and the Republican Party ahead of the November elections. But anything could happen if a serious development occurs in either of the two scenarios we mentioned earlier. If there were a social uprising \u2014 which has historically been met by repression, mass arrests, and imprisonment \u2014 or an attempted mass exodus, the possibility of intervention would become more tangible. <\/p>\n\n

When the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela occurred, many expected a different reaction from the Venezuelan armed forces and from the political support base of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro\u2019s regime. In Cuba\u2019s case, what would the population\u2019s reaction be? Does U.S. pressure generate support for the regime? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Both reactions are possible. There is a segment of the population \u2014 especially young people, critical sectors, and activists who use new social media technologies \u2014 that is strongly positioning itself against the government and is being repressed, arrested, prosecuted, and sentenced to prison terms. There is also an evangelical activism that is mobilizing against the government. This critical segment of Cuban society, particularly among the younger generations, has been gaining ground in its challenge to the government since the 2021 social uprising, and this trend will deepen in the coming weeks. <\/p>\n\n

However, there are also more traditional sectors that will reaffirm their identification with the government under this new climate of hostility. Both dynamics coexist. And I would assume that within the decisive sectors \u2014 namely the military and security apparatus \u2014 a similar division is also emerging: perhaps not as openly oppositional as among young critics of the government, but rather between those more inclined toward reviving a reformist project and those aligning with the government\u2019s current stance. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cuban historian Rafael Rojas, researcher and professor at El Colegio de M\u00e9xico, believes that given the worsening crisis Cuba is facing under the oil siege imposed by Donald Trump and reinforced by the executive order of January 29, 2026, \u201cmigratory pressure toward a mass exodus, or a social explosion, are within the realm of reasonable […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":183470,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCuba\u2019s Dilemma: Resistance, Collapse or Negotiation? - Confidencial<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rafael Rojas: there are sectors proposing a return to the reformist agenda, but the official response is to \u201cclose ranks\u201d with the Government.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/cubas-dilemma-resistance-collapse-or-negotiation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cuba\u2019s Dilemma: Resistance, Collapse or Negotiation?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Rafael Rojas: there are sectors proposing a return to the reformist agenda, but the official response is to \u201cclose ranks\u201d with the Government.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/cubas-dilemma-resistance-collapse-or-negotiation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Confidencial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/confidencial.com.ni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-17T06:12:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-23T14:50:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/apagones-la-habana-cuba.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos F. 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