{"id":183409,"date":"2026-02-13T00:04:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T06:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\/"},"modified":"2026-02-16T02:20:51","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T08:20:51","slug":"managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\/","title":{"rendered":"Managua and Washington after Maduro: Negotiation, Capitulation, or Speculation?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the wake of Nicolas Maduro\u2019s removal<\/a>, a wave of speculation has been unleashed about supposed negotiations between Ortega-Murillo and the United States, or vice versa. Commentary on this issue assumes many variables, factors, and conditions, and the act of negotiating suddenly appears out of nowhere without any preceding process. What is true? If there is negotiation, is it toward capitulation, a Venezuelan-style arrangement, or do the rumors stem from speculation and the illusion of a long-awaited change? <\/p>\n\n

The sources of the rumors<\/h2>\n\n

Since January 3, rumors claim that the release of 20 political prisoners on January 10, 2026, as well as the suspension of visa-free entry for Cuban citizens<\/a> on February 8, respond to pressure from the United States. Some even argue this is happening because \u201cthey\u2019re already talking,\u201d because there is already \u201ca deal with the United States\u201d so they won\u2019t be targeted. <\/p>\n\n

Regarding the first case, Rosario Murillo has implemented a policy, inherited from Daniel Ortega, of imprisoning, prosecuting, and sentencing citizens on false charges with the aim of beheading any form of civic organization and keeping the population suspended in fear. <\/p>\n\n

As with purges, Murillo uses this technique cyclically every three or four months, ultimately releasing small groups of people while leaving the main targets of her political vengeance in prison\u2014and refilling the cells with new detainees. The cells are never empty. <\/p>\n\n

Historically, both Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo have resorted to imprisonment as a method of punishment and intimidation, keeping detainees and the convicted imprisoned for periods of up to three years. There are exceptions such as Jose Manuel Urbina Lara and Jaime Navarrete, who have been punished with the cruelty characteristic of Murillo. It is worth recalling that Urbina Lara had a double conflict with the Sandinistas. He sought asylum in the Costa Rican embassy and later seized the Nicaraguan embassy in Costa Rica in the 1990s, demanding the resignation of General Humberto Ortega and other military officials. <\/p>\n\n

The release of the 20,<\/a> has been attributed by speculation to a message posted by the State Department on social media as the determining factor in the decision. Yet the decision to release them predated January 3 and that post, since the regime\u2019s plan was to free them around Christmas. <\/p>\n\n

In the case of suspending visa-free entry to Nicaragua for Cubans, the dictatorship indeed did so with the United States in mind, assuming that the crisis following the oil embargo would cause a massive exodus and that its \u201cgesture\u201d of containing migration would serve to preempt any pressure or threat from Washington.<\/p>\n\n

The reality is that the intensification of Cuba\u2019s economic and energy crisis has been unfolding since early 2025, and yet migratory flows have decreased\u2014largely because the United States has contained and restricted migration to the US through Donald Trump\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n\n

Although the visa suspension has been linked to the State Department post condemning Murillo as an illegitimate \u201cco-president,\u201d for the United States, this is a silent gesture, unrelated to migration containment and occurring two years after Murillo facilitated the passage of more than 100,000 Cubans, Haitians, and migrants from third countries through Nicaragua toward the United States.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

The association of these decisions by Murillo with messages from the United States is therefore circumstantial and does not reflect any communication exchange, an active diplomatic relationship, or a negotiation. It serves Murillo’s interests for it to be interpreted that way, so she can slip off Washington’s radar. However, formally and diplomatically, there is no evidence of any exchange between the two countries, either from Washington D.C. or from the embassy in Managua. The exchange does not exist because the United States has a tactic on how to deal with the regime in the future, but at present its priorities are different. <\/p>\n\n

When have Ortega-Murillo negotiated with the United States?<\/h2>\n\n

Despite the lack of evidence, the rumors are justified in a sense by the assumption that \u201cthe dictatorship has always negotiated when its power is at risk.\u201d This is a circular argument: political risk generally gives rise to bilateral or multilateral engagement aimed at reaching an arrangement that reflects the balance of power between the parties\u2014typically, one side seeks to improve its position through negotiation. <\/p>\n\n

In general, negotiation rumors assume the dictatorship perceives and lives under a high level of threat from the United States, pushing it toward capitulation. This reasoning rests on the assumption that the military will abandon Ortega-Murillo, or that an imminent implosion will lead to their removal from power by sectors within the regime, a new popular uprising, or a magnanimous display of US power toward the dictatorship. <\/p>\n\n

Certainly, Daniel Ortega has participated in political negotiations since the 1980s: in the Contadora process (1983\u20131986), Manzanillo (1984), Esquipulas I and II (1986\u20131988), and Sapoa (1988\u20131989), which led to the decision to move elections forward. He also negotiated with Nicaragua\u2019s civic opposition in 2019 and reached a very important agreement for the country\u2014one Ortega broke three months later. <\/p>\n\n

In each of these moments, the negotiation process was tied to considerations about how to exploit the political moment and bargaining power relative to risk vis-\u00e0-vis the Reagan administration, Central America, and more recently the civic opposition and public opinion. Conditions differed each time, and Ortega was not always at a disadvantage or cornered, as some claim. <\/p>\n\n

But there is no doubt that before March 2019, the United States influenced these sides to sit down and reach an agreement\u2014one that lacked safeguards, verification, and a timetable, all key elements for ensuring compliance.<\/p>\n\n

Negotiation terms always include risk factors, each actor\u2019s position, and the level of importance assigned to the matter under negotiation. But above all stands the power position each actor holds. The dictatorship\u2019s current interpretation is that it occupies a position of strength where it does not need to negotiate, since four risk factors are not unfavorable to it: there is no adverse economic crisis affecting the dictatorship, no civic opposition or active social protest weakening it internally, no major international mobilization, and the regime maintains highly cohesive control over the ruling circle. <\/p>\n\n

The fear of a negotiation without opposition<\/h2>\n\n

Actions by the Trump administration regarding Venezuela and Cuba have also created the expectation that Nicaragua is next in line, and the association with the release of the 20 prisoners and the visa change for Cuba reinforces that belief. Added to this is the precedent that the United States could negotiate directly with the regime\u2019s power elite like with Venezuela, sidelining the opposition\u2014which is much weaker than Venezuela\u2019s. <\/p>\n\n

However, this speculation overlooks that the power elite\u2019s structure differs in each country. Nicolas Maduro\u2019s inner circle was fairly heterogeneous and not cohesive around him alone, but rather around other influential pillars of power, including the Rodriguez siblings. <\/p>\n\n

In Nicaragua\u2019s case, the power circle is concentrated in Rosario Murillo across all arenas. Her operators\u2014as CONFIDENCIAL<\/strong> has documented<\/a>\u2014remain loyal to her, whether military, police, political, or economic actors. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

Opposition options<\/h2>\n\n

This entire approach to the issue offers important lessons for the opposition. First, it is important to follow Ronald Reagan’s philosophy of “trust but verify”. That means leaving no room for assumptions, rumors, speculation, or illusions of change without evidence and hard data. If there is negotiation, the questions are: Who is involved? Who manages it within the ruling circle? How can exchanges with the United States be verified? It is not enough to say, \u201canalysts on Facebook say so,\u201d or \u201cI heard it on WhatsApp.\u201d That the United States will pressure Nicaragua is a fact\u2014but when and how much depends on many factors, including the role played by risk factors, civic opposition included. <\/p>\n\n

Second, the civic opposition needs to organize within Nicaragua and direct resistance and pressure against Murillo, increasing risk factors unfavorable to Murillo within the ruling elite itself. It is not a matter of assuming \u201cchange is coming\u201d because Ortega is on his way out\u2014just as many predicted Fidel Castro\u2019s death for nearly 20 consecutive years (since the late 1990s). Castro eventually died, the system continued under Ra\u00fal Castro, and now under D\u00edaz-Canel. The task is to work through actions that weaken and dismantle Murillo\u2019s power structure. <\/p>\n\n

Third, if the civic opposition wants to present itself before the international community, it must validate itself as the legitimate representative of the people\u2019s aspirations for change and outline a strategy to alter the balance of power and pressure the dictatorship, with a roadmap for democratic transition. Otherwise, the opposition remains rowing by itself in a sea of rumors and speculation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the wake of Nicolas Maduro\u2019s removal, a wave of speculation has been unleashed about supposed negotiations between Ortega-Murillo and the United States, or vice versa. Commentary on this issue assumes many variables, factors, and conditions, and the act of negotiating suddenly appears out of nowhere without any preceding process. What is true? If there […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":183278,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nManagua and Washington after Maduro: Negotiation, Capitulation, or Speculation? - Confidencial<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Civic opposition needs to organize inside Nicaragua and direct resistance against the co-dictator, increasing the costs for the ruling elite\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Managua and Washington after Maduro: Negotiation, Capitulation, or Speculation?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Civic opposition needs to organize inside Nicaragua and direct resistance against the co-dictator, increasing the costs for the ruling elite\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Confidencial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/confidencial.com.ni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-13T06:04:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-16T08:20:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/acto-Ortega-Murillo-enero-2026-e1770938633627.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2048\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1365\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Manuel Orozco\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@manuelorozco65\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@confidencial_ni\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Manuel Orozco\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/english\\\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/english\\\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Manuel Orozco\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9cd36d8e4eda8f710614af4bfd3a0b8\"},\"headline\":\"Managua and Washington after Maduro: Negotiation, Capitulation, or Speculation?\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-13T06:04:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-16T08:20:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/english\\\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1435,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/english\\\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/02\\\/acto-Ortega-Murillo-enero-2026-e1770938633627.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"English\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"copyrightYear\":\"2026\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/english\\\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/confidencial.digital\\\/en\\\/english\\\/managua-and-washington-after-maduro-negotiation-capitulation-or-speculation\\\/\",\"name\":\"Managua and Washington after Maduro: Negotiation, Capitulation, or Speculation? 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