{"id":177847,"date":"2025-11-11T07:35:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T13:35:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/venezuela-between-the-military-threats-of-trump-and-maduro-the-people-feel-abandoned\/"},"modified":"2025-11-13T16:00:41","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T22:00:41","slug":"venezuela-between-the-military-threats-of-trump-and-maduro-the-people-feel-abandoned","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/venezuela-between-the-military-threats-of-trump-and-maduro-the-people-feel-abandoned\/","title":{"rendered":"Venezuela Between the Military Threats of Trump and Maduro: \u201cThe People Feel Abandoned\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The \u201cwar games\u201d of the Trump Administration against Nicolas Maduro\u2019s dictatorship have drawn international attention to the<a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/mundo\/gobierno-de-trump-admite-al-congreso-que-no-puede-justificar-legalmente-un-ataque-a-venezuela\/\"> US military strategy<\/a> and its theory that increasing military pressure will provoke an internal rupture and regime change with Maduro\u2019s departure.<\/p>\n\n<p>Sociologist David Smilde, a professor at Tulane University and an expert on Venezuela and US\u2013Venezuelan relations for three decades, calls this theory \u201ctoo simplistic.\u201d He argues that within the upper ranks of the Maduro government \u201cthere is still an ideology and a sense of self-preservation among those who have their hands in illicit economies, fear justice, and believe their only security lies with chavismo,\u201d and that \u201cMaduro does everything possible to convince them there will be a witch hunt, keeping the Armed Forces united.\u201d <\/p>\n\n<p>For her part, Venezuelan human rights advocate Carolina Jim\u00e9nez, president of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), believes that \u201cVenezuela\u2019s tragic dilemma is being trapped as a country in a strategy from both sides \u2014 the Maduro regime and the opposition led by Maria Corina Machado \u2014 who see the Trump Administration as the way to stay in power or to seize power.\u201d<\/p>\n\n<p>In a conversation on the program <em>Esta Semana,<\/em> broadcast<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@ConfidencialNica\"> on Confidencial\u2019s YouTube channel<\/a> due to TV censorship in Nicaragua, Smilde and Jimenez examined the \u201cgray zones\u201d of Venezuela\u2019s crisis following the electoral fraud against Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez after the opposition victory of July 28, 2024, and described a Venezuelan people \u201cdesperate and abandoned\u201d amid a severe humanitarian crisis.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>So far, 17 attacks have been carried out in international waters against boats allegedly belonging to drug traffickers, leaving 66 unidentified dead. Are these anti-narcotics operations, acts of war, or extrajudicial executions? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Carolina Jim\u00e9nez:<\/strong> Sadly, the number has increased, because this morning (November 7, 2025) we woke up to news of another attack in the Caribbean Sea, in international waters, bringing the total to 70. We are in the painful task of having to add more dead to the list. <\/p>\n\n<p>When a state takes the law into its own hands under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking \u2014 bombing boats that show no resistance or threat \u2014 and we see no attempt at capture or interception, only the immediate use of lethal force, all minimal use-of-force protocols are violated. The shift from legal, proportional, moderate force to lethal force means we are clearly witnessing extrajudicial executions under international law. We at WOLA said this from day one; other international organizations have said so as well, and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has also stated it. There is a consensus within the human rights and international community that these are grave violations of international human rights law.   <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>The United States has deployed about ten ships, including a submarine, and thousands of soldiers around the Caribbean waters of Venezuela. Soon, the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, the largest and most modern in the US fleet, may join them. What is the goal of this military deployment? Is it really about fighting drugs, or is there another political objective?  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>David Smilde:<\/strong> There are multiple motivations. The stated justification is the fight against drug trafficking \u2014 but that makes little sense. Venezuela is not one of the main sources of cocaine entering the United States. Much of the cocaine passing through Venezuela goes to Europe; only 10 to 15 percent goes through Venezuela to the US, most of that comes through the Pacific. <\/p>\n\n<p>What\u2019s really hitting US cities is fentanyl \u2014 and that doesn\u2019t come from Venezuela; it comes from Mexico, from precursors imported from China. So, the narcotics justification doesn\u2019t hold up. <\/p>\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State and also National Security Advisor, has long sought regime change in Venezuela. So there\u2019s that motivation, especially among political actors in South Florida. Rubio has essentially rebranded a regime-change operation as a drug war, using anti-terrorism language for Trump \u2014 and, of course, Trump campaigned on this. He promised to bomb the cartels, which plays well with his base. With Trump, almost everything is theater.  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Presi\u00f3n militar de EE. UU. en Venezuela: \u00bfFuncionar\u00e1 para cambiar al r\u00e9gimen?\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LUXDox8lyEU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n<p><strong>The United States has said it is preparing ground attacks in Venezuela under the pretext of destroying the drug flow, and it doesn\u2019t rule out attacks on military bases it considers part of the cartels. What consequences could ground attacks in Venezuelan territory have? <\/strong><br\/><br\/><strong>Carolina Jim\u00e9nez<\/strong>: First, we\u2019d have to consider the consequences inside the United States itself. It would be a grave violation of domestic law, since such actions should require Congressional approval, yet these attacks are happening without it. So we\u2019d see a serious overreach of executive power in the United States. In Venezuela, it would be uncharted territory. In Latin America we haven\u2019t seen this kind of attack for decades, and it would be extremely serious for any Latin American country if the US violated its sovereignty and caused civilian casualties.   <\/p>\n\n<p>It\u2019s clear that Venezuelans feel a strong need to move toward democracy, and July 28, 2024, was the clearest proof of that. <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/mundo\/edmundo-gonzalez-urrutia-se-exilia-en-espana\/\">Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez Urrutia<\/a> won the elections overwhelmingly \u2014 but he won them peacefully, through the vote. Unfortunately, that will was completely disregarded, and the Venezuelans\u2019 attempt to have it respected was met with repression. However, that doesn\u2019t mean Venezuelans want bombs dropped on their territory. I insist \u2014 one of the gravest concerns would be the damage to the country, the possible deaths of innocent civilians, and we must acknowledge that Venezuela has different violent groups. There are the so-called armed colectivos, which are paramilitary groups; it also has a complex Armed Forces structure, co-opted by Maduro\u2019s power. We don\u2019t know how they might respond to this. So when you play with gunpowder, that gunpowder can explode \u2014 and we\u2019re facing an unknown and very dangerous situation.   <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>The increasingly overt goal of this strategy of military pressure \u2014 short of a ground invasion \u2014 is to weaken Maduro\u2019s regime, provoke internal divisions, or trigger a rupture that removes him from power. But given the regime\u2019s nature \u2014 a collusion of interests among civic, military, and economic elites \u2014 some analysts question how effective this premise of the U.S. strategy really is. Is it realistic to think military pressure could drive Maduro from power?  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>David Smilde: I\u2019m one of those analysts who questions that strategy. The Venezuelan opposition has long pushed the message that the regime is weak. In the elections, there was an overwhelming majority who voted against it, so there must be a lot of discontent. But it\u2019s important to recognize that after the July 28 election \u2014 that slap in the face \u2014 even I was surprised that there were virtually no defections. In 2017, more people broke away from the regime.   <\/p>\n\n<p>It\u2019s hard to grasp that they still hold on to an ideology \u2014 that they\u2019re revolutionaries engaged in an anti-imperialist struggle. There\u2019s a sense of unity among them that many people overlook, as well as a drive for self-preservation among those still involved in illicit economies. They fear justice and believe their only safety lies with chavismo, while Maduro\u2019s government does everything possible to convince people that there will be a witch hunt.<\/p>\n\n<p>The main theory behind this intervention is the idea that Maduro is the head of a drug cartel \u2014 the Cartel de los Soles refers to the military. So, what incentive would the generals of the Armed Forces have when they\u2019re already painted as drug traffickers? It almost seems like a plan by Maduro himself to ensure the Armed Forces remain united behind him. I think it\u2019s overly simplistic to assume that this kind of pressure will cause a rupture. Another scenario would be targeting Maduro directly, or carrying out the so-called extraction of Maduro and those around him. That also seems simplistic to me, because it doesn\u2019t guarantee a transition; it could just lead to a reshuffle within chavismo, which might be worse than the current situation. There\u2019s a very simplistic sociology of power underlying the idea that this type of pressure will break the regime.<br\/>    <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Where does the opposition led by Mar\u00eda Corina Machado stand now? Is it part of the US military-pressure strategy, or does it have autonomy? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>ChatGPT said:<br\/>Carolina Jim\u00e9nez: Mar\u00eda Corina Machado has been publicly supportive of this U.S. strategy from day one; in various ways, she has expressed that support. The elected president, Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez, is different \u2014 he maintains relationships more focused on Europe, takes a more moderate tone, and represents a more central leadership. Recently, we saw the president-elect meet with dissident chavismo, some of whom were even ministers under Hugo Ch\u00e1vez, showing that his political project is open to those who supported Ch\u00e1vez in the past. I think this sends a positive message that a potential transition would not lead to a witch hunt against former chavismo supporters. In other words, this leadership communicates two clear messages. <\/p>\n\n<p>But indeed, the most internationally recognized figure \u2014 and the one who also led the 2024 campaign \u2014 is <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/venezuelan-opposition-leader-maria-corina-machado-wins-the-2025-nobel-peace-prize\/\">Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, to the point that she received the Nobel Peace Prize<\/a>. She has been very clear in her support of the U.S. strategy.<\/p>\n\n<p>The New York Times reported that Nicol\u00e1s Maduro was sending very clear messages to Donald Trump, letting him know that he was willing to hand over all the concessions he had granted for oil and mineral exploitation to the Russians and Chinese \u2014 or to American companies. The great tragedy of Venezuela is that it seems both the <g id=\"gid_0\">de facto<\/g> government and the opposition are doing everything possible to secure Trump\u2019s attention and commitment to their cause. Maduro acknowledges and promises Trump that if he is allowed to govern in peace, with his repression and illegitimacy intact, he would grant these concessions for mineral and oil exploitation to American companies. On the other side, Machado recognizes that without that support, the credible threat, and military pressure, she could not create any kind of fracture in the dominant coalition. It\u2019s a tragic dilemma \u2014 the country is caught in a strategy from both sides that sees the Trump administration as the key either to stay in power or to gain it.    <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Does the Trump administration have a political timeframe to influence the crisis in Venezuela? Can it keep the situation in suspense indefinitely, or is it obliged to put its strategy into action in the coming weeks or months?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>David Smilde:<\/strong> The Trump administration is experiencing some wear with this operation. In recent weeks, polls have shown that the majority of the population does not support any kind of attack on Venezuela. There were also elections in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey \u2014 not directly relevant to this issue, but they serve as a barometer of Trump\u2019s support. The candidates Trump backed lost by large margins, which was a significant blow. Trump has a great capacity to dismiss favorable polls as fake news, but electoral results are harder to ignore. This aligns with reports we\u2019ve seen in recent days that Trump has doubts about moving forward with a military operation in Venezuela, as well as news that the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford left the Mediterranean, though it has now spent two days in a fixed position off the coast of Morocco.   <\/p>\n\n<p>All of this points to wear and tear on the operation, and that Trump is thinking twice. But we also have to remember that Trump is a specialist at keeping everyone off balance. We\u2019ve seen cycles of three or four days where he changes his mind \u2014 is an attack imminent? Is he backing off? \u2014 that\u2019s Trump\u2019s method. I do believe that the more the U.S. public learns about this operation, the less support it has. The flood of opinion pieces and analytical reports over the past three weeks has been extremely negative. So, yes, his options are somewhat limited, and the longer time passes, the less likely it becomes that they will carry out any military attack.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Where does Latin America stand in this crisis and the US policy of using force in international waters and potentially Venezuelan territory? Is it a passive spectator, or is this due to internal divisions in today\u2019s Latin America? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Carolina Jim\u00e9nez:<\/strong> In general, and historically, there has been broad rejection of U.S. intervention in Latin American affairs, but right now we\u2019re seeing a lot of silence. On one hand, the Trump administration has shown that it holds countries accountable and is fully willing to exact a price \u2014 its tariff policy has been one way to exercise coercion over the region. That has affected how states choose to speak out, or remain silent, regarding U.S. policies. The second point is that Trump picked his enemy quite carefully this time. Maduro is deeply unpopular in Latin America. If you look at who dares to support him or speak out on social media, it\u2019s mostly Gustavo Petro; Lula has also said that these military attacks in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific are illegal, but in a fairly moderate way. Maduro\u2019s government has been very diplomatically isolated, and very few countries recognized his 2024 \u201cvictory,\u201d because everyone knows it was effectively an open electoral fraud.    <\/p>\n\n<p>That doesn\u2019t mean these countries are unaware that the United States is committing illegal actions, but it\u2019s very difficult for them to openly support the Venezuelan government. It\u2019s even harder to show solidarity with the Venezuelan people without going through Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Mar\u00eda Corina Machado has repeatedly said that if this policy succeeds and Maduro is removed from power, Cuba and Nicaragua will be next. Are these \u201cwar games\u201d in Venezuela a laboratory for U.S. policies toward the dictatorships in Cuba and Nicaragua?<br\/> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>David Smilde:<\/strong> Without a doubt, that\u2019s Marco Rubio\u2019s motivation: Cuba survived the past 20 years thanks to Venezuela\u2019s support, and if Venezuela\u2019s democracy is restored, the thinking goes, Cuba and Nicaragua will follow. But I also think that\u2019s very simplistic. Cuba has been entrenched for a long time, and you shouldn\u2019t underestimate the skill of the elite that has privileged access to economic and military resources, as well as control over the population.<br\/>  <\/p>\n\n<p>How exactly would Cuba fall if Venezuela falls? Venezuela\u2019s support for Cuba today is minimal, and Cuba\u2019s leaders have shown indifference to what\u2019s happening to their population. I don\u2019t see a popular uprising, or a loss of support from the Armed Forces. So how would this really play out? People use metaphors like it will be a domino effect, but Cuba has been in place for about 60 years; everyone keeps thinking it\u2019s about to fall, yet it has held firm. Nicaragua is in the same situation. You know much more about this than I do, but there we also have an authoritarian government willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power. Another type of mechanism would be needed to change that. Direct military intervention is possible \u2014 you can remove a regime \u2014 but what comes afterward is always highly uncertain. That\u2019s the problem. I don\u2019t see how this would necessarily change the situation in those other countries.      <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Returning to Venezuela: if direct military intervention isn\u2019t on Trump\u2019s agenda, and military pressure doesn\u2019t seem likely to produce the regime change the U.S. is projecting, what about the vast majority of Venezuelans who voted against Maduro, who voted for Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez, and whose election was stolen? Are they mere spectators, or do they have a role in this crisis? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Carolina Jim\u00e9nez:<\/strong> That\u2019s the question we all have. After July 28, 2024, one of the Maduro regime\u2019s main strategies has been the sustained increase in repression \u2014 a very exemplary form of repression that cannot be underestimated \u2014 and the surveillance system. Right now, they\u2019ve just revived an app that allows people to report what their neighbors or friends are doing, and whether they might be dangerous to the homeland. Well, you in Nicaragua know this very well; it\u2019s also well known in Cuba. It exerts a huge pressure, tears apart social fabric, but further entrenches censorship in the country. Never before had a woman won the Nobel Peace Prize. You may have many disagreements with Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, but you can\u2019t deny that it was national news \u2014 and the only three radio announcers who reported it are \u201con vacation\u201d today.     <\/p>\n\n<p>That society that voted against Maduro has never stopped demanding a peaceful change of government, but it is truly demoralized by censorship, repression, and increasingly intense surveillance. I don\u2019t think what was expressed on July 28, 2024, is dead; I believe there will be other opportunities for that national sentiment to resurface. But these are very difficult times because Venezuela is also facing a complex humanitarian emergency. One in three Venezuelans lives in food insecurity. The vast majority of people have to focus on putting bread on the table and sending their children to school, while most teachers have fled the country or cannot teach on a daily basis. These kinds of realities heavily affect the political agenda of any society and also determine whether a society can, or cannot, resist authoritarianism.    <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>If military pressure is not necessarily going to lead to a regime change, Trump has no plans for a military invasion, and the Venezuelan people are crushed, it seems this crisis in Venezuela is likely to be prolonged.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>David Smilde:<\/strong> The population of Venezuela is in an extremely dire and tragic situation because people are desperate. They voted with their hearts in their hands, went to elections under unfair conditions, yet they won by a wide margin \u2014 and chavismo didn\u2019t accept it. For about a month, there were some comments from the presidents of Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico. But after that, nothing. The people in Venezuela feel abandoned. What\u2019s happening now is an important lesson: if the progressive forces, which were thought to have influence, did nothing, if the world forgets a population living in such despair, that creates space for someone like Trump. I know many people who aren\u2019t militaristic, even some who supported chavismo until recently, who are now focused on the possibility of a military invasion because they are desperate. In this situation, they feel that the only person who cares is Trump.       <\/p>\n\n<p>It\u2019s clear that there will be moments in the future when they need to organize for elections, to engage in politics, but to do that there must be a renewed multilateral international effort regarding Venezuela \u2014 from the region, from the European Union, and not just the United States. We need to return to that approach to try to find some solution for the Venezuelan people, who are in desperate need.<br\/> <br\/> <br\/> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The \u201cwar games\u201d of the Trump Administration against Nicolas Maduro\u2019s dictatorship have drawn international attention to the US military strategy and its theory that increasing military pressure will provoke an internal rupture and regime change with Maduro\u2019s departure. Sociologist David Smilde, a professor at Tulane University and an expert on Venezuela and US\u2013Venezuelan relations for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":177730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-177847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Venezuela Between Trump and Maduro: \u201cThe People Feel Abandoned\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Carolina Jimenez and David Smilde: \u201cThe tragedy is that both Maduro and the opposition see Trump as a way to stay in power, or to obtain it.\u201d\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/venezuela-between-the-military-threats-of-trump-and-maduro-the-people-feel-abandoned\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Venezuela Between the Military Threats of Trump and Maduro: \u201cThe People Feel Abandoned\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Carolina Jimenez and David Smilde: \u201cThe tragedy is that both Maduro and the opposition see Trump as a way to stay in power, or to obtain it.\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/venezuela-between-the-military-threats-of-trump-and-maduro-the-people-feel-abandoned\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Confidencial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/confidencial.com.ni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-11T13:35:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-13T22:00:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Fotoarte-Trump-y-Maduro.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos F. 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