{"id":175850,"date":"2025-10-08T01:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T07:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/trumps-pressure-maduros-dictatorship-and-the-threat-of-war-in-venezuela\/"},"modified":"2025-10-09T15:27:18","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T21:27:18","slug":"trumps-pressure-maduros-dictatorship-and-the-threat-of-war-in-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/trumps-pressure-maduros-dictatorship-and-the-threat-of-war-in-venezuela\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Pressure, Maduro\u2019s Dictatorship, and the Threat of War in Venezuela"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Seven weeks after the United States announced its supposed anti-drug operation in the Venezuelan Caribbean, a naval and air military deployment of 4,000 Marines remains in place, aimed at the regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n

In an article published in El Pa\u00eds, titled \u201cThe Venezuelan Dilemma: Negotiate Before the Bombs Decide<\/a>,\u201d Venezuelan journalist Boris Mu\u00f1oz describes a country trapped in limbo. On the one hand, a full-scale military invasion is unlikely, but limited military actions to weaken the regime are considered imminent. On the other, no political negotiation seems possible between Maduro and Trump, while the opposition led by Mar\u00eda Corina Machado remains aligned with the US strategy to secure recognition of Edmundo Gonzalez, the elected president and winner of the July 28, 2024 elections. <\/p>\n\n

In a conversation on Esta Semana, broadcast on Confidencial\u2019s YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Mu\u00f1oz refuses to make predictions about a conflict unfolding in \u201cthe fog of war.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

In Venezuela, Mu\u00f1oz summarizes, \u201cone must take a considerable risk to bring about change. Otherwise, the alternative is the continued rule of the Maduro government, which has already caused enough havoc across the region. Latin America must look at itself and ask: what can we do to end this situation in the best possible way\u2014producing regime change?\u201d<\/p>\n\n

After the sinking of three boats allegedly carrying Venezuelan drug traffickers in international waters, the United States has increased its military presence and even declared war on cartels it defines as \u201cinternational non-state actors.\u201d How does the Maduro regime interpret the continued and growing U.S. military pressure? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

BORIS MU\u00d1OZ: The regime is deeply concerned. It has tried to reopen unofficial talks through Rick Grenell, Trump\u2019s special envoy for Venezuela. It has also taken steps to tighten internal control of drug trafficking to undercut the pretexts the Trump administration is using for this siege. <\/p>\n\n

This began about seven weeks ago, with naval and now air deployments in Puerto Rico and Caribbean waters, involving more than 4,000 Marines and other forces. As Trump\u2019s rhetoric has intensified<\/a>, the Maduro government has made moves\u2014even in Qatar\u2014to explore possible dialogue or commitments that might save it from direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. I don\u2019t mean an invasion, because there\u2019s been clear emphasis in Washington that it wouldn\u2019t be one. Rather, it would consist of strikes targeting drug-trafficking-related objectives. <\/p>\n\n

But it\u2019s all quite confusing, because this military buildup is being used to target the Maduro government directly. Maduro has been named head of the Cartel of the Suns and leader of El Tren de Aragua, and the bounty on his head has been raised to US $50 million. One doesn\u2019t have to read between the lines to see that this points directly at Maduro\u2014whether as deterrence or as a prelude to military action in the coming weeks, as several outlets have reported. <\/p>\n\n

Maduro continues increasing militarization and preparing for supposed military confrontation. What is the mood among chavistas (government supporters) and ordinary Venezuelans? Are they preparing for a prolonged crisis or a quick strike? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

People are expecting a surgical strike. I don\u2019t have official data\u2014just accounts from friends and family\u2014describing an atmosphere of skepticism. The end of the Maduro regime has been announced so many times that people prefer to take everything \u201cwith a grain of salt.\u201d In fact, there was a controversial New York Times report last Sunday that was heavily criticized for portraying the militias\u2019 level of commitment, while hinting that there are internal problems within the Venezuelan government. The fact that the regime allowed a major outlet like the Times to conduct even a mild investigation shows a shift\u2014an attempt to open a window to the outside world amid its deep isolation. <\/p>\n\n

That\u2019s a very significant fact. If you look at what\u2019s happening in Latin America, there\u2019s been very little noise, few voices speaking out against this imminent action. It\u2019s been 35 years since we\u2019ve seen such a major military deployment in Latin America \u2014 not since the 1989 invasion of Panama, which, incidentally, people tend to regard as a success. <\/p>\n\n

Although this is officially an anti-drug operation, it\u2019s becoming increasingly clear, and even the United States presents it that way, that it\u2019s an operation against Maduro. Is it directed at Nicol\u00e1s Maduro himself, or at the political\u2013military leadership that sustains this regime? What impact is it having within that leadership? Have they become more united around Maduro, or could there be some cracks emerging? <\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n

I think it has created more unity. So far, we haven\u2019t seen any cracks. But in reality, nothing significant has happened inside Venezuelan territory yet<\/a>. The bombed boats were in international waters. Seventeen people are believed to have died, a tragic event, but there hasn\u2019t been a direct attack on the regime. Everything remains, as experts say, within \u201cthe fog of war.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s a relatively difficult picture to read, but if you look at what opposition spokespeople are saying, there\u2019s a pretty close alignment between what Mar\u00eda Corina Machado thinks and how the United States is acting. The expectation is that Maduro\u2019s dictatorship will end in a few weeks \u2014 that\u2019s what you hear on social media, that\u2019s what Venezuelans in Florida believe. Some say they\u2019ll carry out attacks like what happened with Osama bin Laden: an extraction or the elimination of Maduro\u2019s inner circle. Others say there are 600 military targets, linked to drug trafficking, inside Venezuela. In that whole cloud of information, the clearest message is that actions will be taken to weaken Maduro\u2019s regime, aiming to provoke an internal split \u2014 something people have talked about for years, but that still hasn\u2019t happened. <\/p>\n\n

I don\u2019t know if that is going to happen. If US forces do engage, not through invasion or occupation, but through targeted strikes, it could indeed provoke a break and regime change. Venezuela simply lacks the military capacity to respond to US power. <\/p>\n\n

That alignment of the Venezuelan opposition led by Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, I suppose also including the elected president, Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez, what implications does it have for their confrontation with the regime? The regime has threatened them even more. Could the opposition leaders who are still in Venezuela face further criminalization? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Without a doubt, there is a persecution underway, which adds to what was already happening. People have been arrested \u2014 I don\u2019t know the exact number \u2014 but over the past month, activists from Mar\u00eda Corina Machado\u2019s party, Vente Venezuela, have been detained. There is a state of heightened surveillance and fear, carried out by Diosdado Cabello, who is in charge of repression. The situation is very complex for the opposition. For Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, this is an extremely high-stakes gamble \u2014 almost a final attempt, but rather aimed at reaching the state of legitimacy that Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez Urrutia was granted by last year\u2019s (2024) election, which has not been recognized and was fraudulent on the part of the Venezuelan government. The goal is to reach the point where Gonz\u00e1lez Urrutia is recognized as the legitimate president of the Venezuelans and is sworn in as such. <\/p>\n\n

think that\u2019s the opposition\u2019s goal at the moment. Mar\u00eda Corina Machado said that her aim is not to be president, but to liberate Venezuela. She sees herself as the vector of this liberation, which she believes will be made possible through her alliance with the Trump administration \u2014 more specifically, with Marco Rubio. <\/p>\n\n

In this intermediate space \u2014 where it\u2019s not a full-scale military invasion, but there is a maximum increase in military pressure \u2014 it would be very likely for an escalation or confrontation to occur, military incidents between the armies of both countries. What kind of consequences could these military triggers have? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Internally, there is an effort at social control. By deploying militias and arming the population \u2014 even if he isn\u2019t actually giving out the weapons, which isn\u2019t entirely clear \u2014 the government is sending a signal to ensure that no one rises up at this moment and that there is no social revolt, which would be very costly and difficult to control. On the other hand, if a military incident of any kind does occur, I believe the outcome will be unfavorable for Venezuela, in the sense that the U.S. military deployment will have a higher cost in Venezuelan lives than for them. <\/p>\n\n

Trump himself has built part of his political brand around avoiding military interventions that are costly in human lives<\/a>. That\u2019s what he has sold to the MAGA base. In a way, this represents a shift from what he has previously advocated, and politically, a low-cost regime change in Venezuela would be very profitable for him. <\/p>\n\n

These are some of the elements that form part of a great haze \u2014 very difficult to unravel \u2014 about what\u2019s coming. But there is an almost certain expectation among opposition actors that this will develop, and that only a few weeks remain.<\/p>\n\n

In the event that this U.S. strategy of military pressure causes a disruption, a breakdown of the regime, and allows the Venezuelan opposition to assume leadership of the country \u2014 are they prepared for the day after? Edmundo Gonz\u00e1lez Urrutia would be the elected president and would take over the government, but can Venezuela actually be governed? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

That\u2019s an extremely difficult question. In Venezuela, there are illicit or criminal actors of various kinds. Colombian guerrillas have become narco-guerrillas, there are mineral traffickers, armed criminal gangs, and even the government\u2019s own Colectivos. There are a lot of weapons scattered throughout Venezuela, and controlling them won\u2019t be easy. <\/p>\n\n

The opposition has a carefully prepared transition plan and control plan that would allow them to take over the government. It\u2019s very risky to speculate on this and make a precise prediction. But, in any case \u2014 and this is a very personal opinion \u2014 a risk of considerable magnitude must be taken to bring about change. Otherwise, the alternative is the continuation of the Maduro government, which many present, both inside and outside Venezuela, as a factor of regional stability. We know that the Maduro regime is not a guarantee of greater stability; it has already caused enough havoc across the region. This is a moment when Latin America needs to look at itself and ask: what can we do to bring this situation to the best possible end, producing regime change? There should be action along those lines, which so far has not been seen either. <\/p>\n\n

And on the other hand, the international actors allied with Maduro\u2019s regime \u2014 I mean Iran, China, and Russia \u2014 don\u2019t seem to be having much influence in this crisis. They make diplomatic statements, but I don\u2019t think Maduro can really count on them. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

I don\u2019t think he can count on them. Maybe with Russia, up to a certain point, because Russia supplies weapons to Venezuela. The country\u2019s major warplanes are Russian Sukhois, and its assault rifles are Kalashnikovs. But Russia is overstretched with its costly war in Ukraine. Iran was very recently defeated by the United States. China doesn\u2019t like getting involved in military conflicts, and I don\u2019t think its stake in Venezuela is high enough to justify any serious involvement there; it has far more profitable commercial alliances elsewhere, starting with Brazil. <\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s a very complex scenario for Maduro. <\/a>They\u2019re living off their image \u2014 the military power they\u2019ve cultivated over the past 25 years \u2014 but I don\u2019t think that\u2019s enough for a prolonged confrontation, or perhaps even a brief one, with the world\u2019s greatest military power. <\/p>\n\n

The forecasts made by some Venezuelan leaders, and also by some North American politicians in Marco Rubio\u2019s circle, that this crisis could be resolved before Christmas, do they have any basis in realism or feasibility?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

I think that\u2019s the central question, politically speaking, because next year (2026), there will be crucial midterm elections here in the United States for Trump\u2019s project. If he gets caught in a prolonged military conflict, a quagmire of war, that would reduce his chances of winning that election. <\/p>\n\n

On the other hand, there is a big bet that many Venezuelans will be eating hallacas in Caracas in December. I don\u2019t know how realistic that hope is, or how close we are to being able to fulfill it, but they say that Trump has several intervention or action scenarios on his desk, and that any action must be low-cost and short-term. I, however, do not dare to make a forecast. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Seven weeks after the United States announced its supposed anti-drug operation in the Venezuelan Caribbean, a naval and air military deployment of 4,000 Marines remains in place, aimed at the regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. In an article published in El Pa\u00eds, titled \u201cThe Venezuelan Dilemma: Negotiate Before the Bombs Decide,\u201d Venezuelan journalist Boris […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":175773,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-175850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump\u2019s Pressure, Maduro\u2019s Dictatorship, and the Threat of War in Venezuela<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Boris Mu\u00f1oz: In the cloud of information, what is coming through is that the U.S. will launch military actions aimed at weakening the regime, seeking \u201can internal break\u201d\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/trumps-pressure-maduros-dictatorship-and-the-threat-of-war-in-venezuela\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s Pressure, Maduro\u2019s Dictatorship, and the Threat of War in Venezuela\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Boris Mu\u00f1oz: In the cloud of information, what is coming through is that the U.S. will launch military actions aimed at weakening the regime, seeking \u201can internal break\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/trumps-pressure-maduros-dictatorship-and-the-threat-of-war-in-venezuela\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Confidencial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/confidencial.com.ni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-08T07:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-09T21:27:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Marcha-chavista-en-Venezuela.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos F. 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