The recent sinking by a US missile of a pe\u00f1ero (small boat) allegedly carrying cocaine, which killed its 11 crew members, has brought to the forefront the true scale of the crisis now unfolding between the United States and Venezuela. Washington has accused the Cartel of the Suns of being a terrorist organization and, to combat it, has deployed a powerful naval flotilla in the Caribbean \u2014 including a nuclear submarine \u2014 and has raised the bounty for capturing Nicolas Maduro, the supposed leader of the organization, to 50 million dollars. <\/p>\n\n
The situation is far more complex than it seems, given that the White House\u2019s objectives are not entirely clear. After the devastating strike and subsequent threats, several questions arise, starting with whether the sinking even really happened. Maduro claims it is all the product of artificial intelligence, while, in a rhetorical shift toward acknowledging the incident, Diosdado Cabello insists the destroyed boat is a complete fabrication. Beyond that, two key issues remain: first, whether the Cartel of the Suns is real, as Donald Trump and Marco Rubio claim, or whether it is, as Maduro insists, a fabricated excuse that doesn\u2019t exist. Colombian President Gustavo Petro supports this view, arguing it is \u201cthe fictitious excuse of the far right to topple governments that do not obey them.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
The biggest question, however, is about the scope of the provocation \u2014 specifically, whether or not it will ultimately lead to an invasion. This is perhaps the central issue. While the chances of such an event are slim, Trump\u2019s volatile and narcissistic character means that any possibility remains open. When I refer to the limited likelihood of a US ground invasion, one must take into account Venezuela\u2019s size, Maduro\u2019s will to resist, and the fact that the mobilized flotilla carries only 2,000 marines \u2014 far too small a force for such a goal. <\/p>\n\n
Despite its limitations, the Venezuelan Armed Forces possess considerable firepower, and the number of deployable troops \u2014 including militias \u2014 the vastness of the country, and its remaining international alliances all act as significant deterrents. There is also the crucial question \u2014 not minor at all \u2014 of who would manage a transition, for how long, and with what resources. <\/p>\n\n
Meanwhile, US policy toward Venezuela is shaped by three groups with contradictory interests. The first, led by Marco Rubio, seeks to topple the Maduro regime at any cost. The second is focused on exploiting Venezuelan oil and boosting Chevron\u2019s presence, with Richard Grenell, the president\u2019s envoy for special missions, as its key figure. The third group is tied to the expulsion of undocumented immigrants, embodied by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which favors maintaining good relations with Maduro. <\/p>\n\n
Unsurprisingly, Trump\u2019s announcement designating the Cartel of the Suns a terrorist organization, after having already done so with the Tren de Aragua, has divided Latin American countries. The cartel, said to comprise much of the Venezuelan leadership and named for the generals involved, has drawn significant attention in the context of growing regional concern over drug trafficking. Illustrative in this regard are the statements from CELAC, after its virtual meeting of foreign ministers, emphasizing \u201cthe need to keep Latin America a land of peace, free of any intervention, with strict respect for United Nations declarations and for the preservation of countries\u2019 peace and sovereignty.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
It is clear that given regional divisions, not much more could be achieved. Ecuador, Paraguay, and Argentina have also declared the Cartel of the Suns a terrorist organization, a position supported by Guyana, both because of its border conflict with Venezuela over the Essequibo and out of fear that Caracas might seize the opportunity to strike. Other countries, such as Mexico and Brazil, have expressed concern, calling for respect of sovereignty and insisting on the principle of non-interference. Beyond its usual allies, even Colombia has opposed the naval pressure, worried that an invasion would trigger new waves of migrants flooding its territory. <\/p>\n\n
More than a year has passed since the massive fraud of July 28, 2024. Despite the lack of any verifiable evidence of his victory, Maduro remains in power, and time has only strengthened his grip. Trump\u2019s threats and naval deployment are a perfect gift for Maduro, who uses them to stoke nationalist and anti-imperialist sentiments among his followers, rallying them around his government and further dividing an already fractured opposition. Positions on a potential invasion are not unanimous. While Mar\u00eda Corina Machado thanks Marco Rubio for his bellicosity, stating that \u201cevery day that passes tightens the noose around the narco-terrorist cartel,\u201d Henrique Capriles counters: \u201cMost of the people who want a US invasion don\u2019t live in Venezuela.\u201d <\/p>\n\n
For now, nothing suggests \u2014 beyond the hopes of many Venezuelans yearning to end the dictatorship \u2014 that an invasion is imminent, or that the naval pressure in the Caribbean will topple the Maduro regime. Unfortunately for the future of Venezuelan democracy, that is not Trump\u2019s agenda. He has his own goals, pursued with methods that are highly questionable. <\/p>\n\n