{"id":171808,"date":"2025-08-04T00:12:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T06:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/dora-maria-tellez-unrest-in-historical-sandinismo-over-purge-of-bayardo-arce\/"},"modified":"2025-08-04T04:39:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T10:39:48","slug":"dora-maria-tellez-unrest-in-historical-sandinismo-over-purge-of-bayardo-arce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/policy\/dora-maria-tellez-unrest-in-historical-sandinismo-over-purge-of-bayardo-arce\/","title":{"rendered":"Dora Mar\u00eda T\u00e9llez: &#8220;Unrest in Historical Sandinismo Over Purge of Bayardo Arce&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The purge of presidential advisor Bayardo Arce Casta\u00f1o, who was <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/co-dictators-threaten-advisor-bayardo-arce-over-transactions-outside-the-state\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">arrested at his home by dozens of police officers<\/a> at midnight on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, \u201cis generating unrest among the historical Sandinismo that still remains in the Army, the Police, the Government, and the Sandinista Front,\u201d says Dora Mar\u00eda T\u00e9llez, historian and political activist.<\/p>\n\n<p>In an interview on the program <em>Esta Semana<\/em>, broadcast on CONFIDENCIAL\u2019s YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, T\u00e9llez analyzed the purge of Arce, as well as that of retired <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/retired-general-alvaro-baltodano-sentenced-to-20-years-in-prison-assets-confiscated\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">General \u00c1lvaro Baltodano<\/a> two months ago \u2014 both political and economic operatives, allies of Daniel Ortega. They were ousted as a \u201cpreventive strike\u201d born out of fear, insecurity, and Rosario Murillo\u2019s paranoia, to exercise power without any internal checks, in the event of Daniel Ortega\u2019s absence. \u201cThey are clearing the table for Murillo and her heirs,\u201d said T\u00e9llez, because \u201conce Daniel Ortega is gone, Murillo is left in a position of maximum weakness, which is what they are trying to avoid at this moment.\u201d <\/p>\n\n<p>The former guerrilla fighter questioned the viability of Rosario Murillo\u2019s dynastic succession: \u201cShe will reap what she sows; she is a tyrannical, vindictive, authoritarian person who also lacks the political skills and strategic sense that Daniel Ortega may have had when he was in better condition. Murillo sees political hegemony as a problem, and for her, the issue of power is resolved through the exercise of authority backed by armed repression,\u201d said T\u00e9llez.<\/p>\n\n<p>The former prisoner of conscience under the Ortega-Murillo dictatorship and founder of the Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) in 1995 \u2014 now called Unamos \u2014 insisted that insisted that \u201cthere is deep unrest within the ranks of historical Sandinismo, as they see a deliberate effort to forcibly push them out in order to place not only Rosario Murillo but all her children in power, and they themselves reject this dynastic family model of heirs,\u201d she argued.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Today marks one week since Daniel Ortega withdrew the police escort from his presidential advisor on economic affairs, Bayardo Arce Casta\u00f1o, beginning Arce\u2019s downfall until he was captured by dozens of police officers at midnight on Wednesday, July 30. He is currently detained and subject to an investigation announced by the Attorney General\u2019s Office. What does Bayardo Arce\u2019s fall mean within the Ortega-Murillo dictatorship\u2019s power structure?  <\/strong><br\/><br\/>I see it as a purge of the entire circle that usually surrounded Daniel Ortega and that holds some economic power, political influence, and weight within the Sandinista Front.<\/p>\n\n<p>This purge is being carried out by Daniel and Rosario themselves to favor the succession of Rosario and her children\u2014they are clearing the table and setting things up. It signals that Daniel Ortega\u2019s decline is extremely serious; otherwise, this move would have waited. They are acting before it becomes strictly necessary. Rosario Murillo\u2019s sense of weakness and insecurity is pushing them to quickly cleanse the circle around the people who normally surrounded Daniel Ortega.   <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Bayardo Arce, in addition to being a historic leader of the Sandinista Front, was the party\u2019s representative to the Supreme Court of Justice for over two decades. He became a private businessman and an economic operator with significant influence, and he was a political ally of Daniel Ortega. Did Arce represent a faction or current within the Sandinista Front? <\/strong><br\/><br\/>He had strong ties to Sandinista businessmen and professionals. He and Ajax Delgado were connected to this whole group of entrepreneurs who organized and motivated others, including Francisco L\u00f3pez and several more.<\/p>\n\n<p>He also cultivated significant influence within the judicial system. In fact, Gerardo, his brother, is a magistrate on the Supreme Court of Justice, and Bayardo maintained very close relationships with judges, appellate court magistrates, local judges, and district judges. Although his direct organic connection to the judiciary was gradually displaced\u2014since he was the key link to the judicial system\u2014he still retained a considerable level of influence.  <\/p>\n\n<p>Finally, Bayardo holds economic power and financial capacity independent of any public office. In other words, he owns his own businesses and his own wealth, which only increases Rosario Murillo\u2019s insecurity, as he is not dependent on a public position but still has resources that she fears could eventually be used to conspire against her. <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"684\" src=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/24207851644_0ae077296e_h-1024x684.jpg\" alt=\"Dora Maria Tellez\" class=\"wp-image-81806\" srcset=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/24207851644_0ae077296e_h-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/24207851644_0ae077296e_h-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/24207851644_0ae077296e_h-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/24207851644_0ae077296e_h-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/24207851644_0ae077296e_h.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dora Mar\u00eda T\u00e9llez in her former home in Nicaragua. The former Sandinista guerrilla was in prison for 22 months and was released and banished from her country by the Ortega-Murillo regime in February 2023. \/\/ Photo: Confidencial.  <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p><strong>Was Bayardo Arce conspiring against the Ortega-Murillo regime, or was he still a political ally of Daniel Ortega? He had been a presidential advisor with virtually no functions for over two years, but officially he remained a presidential advisor. <\/strong><br\/><br\/>I don\u2019t believe Bayardo was involved in any conspiracy. He cared deeply about his money, and in order to protect his wealth, he lowered his profile as the Ortega-Murillo regime demanded a lower profile from him. He never complained because, first and foremost, his focus was on safeguarding his assets and businesses from being affected, so he stepped back.  <\/p>\n\n<p>I don\u2019t think he was conspiring, but from Rosario Murillo\u2019s perspective, given the paranoia within the political power structure surrounding the Ortega-Murillo regime, he unquestionably represented a risk.<br\/><br\/><strong>Is the purge of Bayardo Arce related to the one carried out more than two months ago against retired General \u00c1lvaro Baltodano, who along with Arce was one of the regime\u2019s main economic operators for over 12 years? Baltodano was recently sentenced in a secret trial to 20 years in prison for alleged treason.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>It seems to me it\u2019s the same move: clearing the entire board so Rosario Murillo can take full control without opposition. There is a list of people to be killed and others to be imprisoned. They <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/nacion\/entrevista-con-claudia-vargas-esposa-de-roberto-samcam\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">started with Roberto Samcam<\/a> among those to be killed, but there is also a list of people to be targeted inside the country, both within the opposition and now especially within the ranks of \u201chistorical Sandinismo.\u201d These are those Rosario Murillo considers to have been traditionally loyal to Daniel Ortega but who are not Murillo loyalists and likely hold a certain disdain toward her.  <\/p>\n\n<p>The arrests of \u00c1lvaro Baltodano and Bayardo Arce are part of the same internal control move within the Sandinista movement, starting with the \u201chistorical Sandinismo,\u201d which they are going to hit hard. These are the figures Rosario Murillo considers most dangerous. Along with the opposition in exile, they can continue their campaign of executions, like the assassination of Roberto Samcam. <br\/><br\/><strong>Bayardo Arce is the third former member of the Sandinista Front Directorate to be placed under de facto house arrest. Humberto Ortega was in the same situation before he died; he even said he considered himself a \u201cpolitical prisoner\u201d because of his expressed opinions. Henry Ruiz is also under de facto house arrest. Arce, however, is in prison and, according to the Attorney General\u2019s Office, will be subjected to an official investigation.   <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>They are different cases, Humberto (Ortega) and Henry Ruiz were clearly critical. Humberto was very clear in saying that <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/politica\/perfil-humberto-ortega-murio-como-reo-politico-de-su-hermano-dictador\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rosario Murillo could not hold political power<\/a> without Daniel Ortega and that there needed to be a negotiation process with the opposition to open a transition to democracy. Humberto even went so far as to suggest advancing elections. Those were the reasons he was first arrested at home, then taken to the Military Hospital, and ultimately died.  <\/p>\n\n<p>In the case of Henry Ruiz, he had also been an outspoken opponent of the Ortega-Murillo regime. The difference with Bayardo is that he has been unwaveringly loyal. Bayardo has never flinched; there is no known connection to the opposition or any indication of involvement in conspiracies. <\/p>\n\n<p>Bayardo\u2019s case is absolutely preventive\u2014a term used by intelligence and counterintelligence agencies. It is a prophylactic action to neutralize anyone who could cause problems, which is the Ortega-Murillo model. For example, around July 19, they carried out similar <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/jinotepe-detainees-still-missing-ortega-regime-hides-their-whereabouts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">prophylactic operations, like the one in Jinotepe<\/a>\u2014I don\u2019t know why they arrested that family\u2014and in other places, they detain people they consider potential risks. <\/p>\n\n<p>In the cases of Bayardo and Baltodano, these are classic punitive political prophylaxis operations, because they are kidnappings. Baltodano has already been formally charged; Bayardo\u2019s arrest is essentially a kidnapping, with the Attorney General\u2019s Office announcing he will be prosecuted.<br\/><br\/><strong>What impact do these preventive prophylactic purges have on the chain of command within the Army, the Government, the Police, and the Sandinista Front itself?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>Before Bayardo Arce\u2019s kidnapping, the top brass of the Army, Police, and what remains of the \u201chistorical Sandinismo\u201d within the Sandinista Front thought the purges might be a bit exaggerated\u2014that some of those purged were involved in trouble or unauthorized corruption. But the arrest of Bayardo and the imprisonment and sentencing of \u00c1lvaro Baltodano sends a clear message to all these people: they\u2019re next on the list.Why would Rosario Murillo trust a man like (Julio C\u00e9sar) Avil\u00e9s, who\u2019s been head of the Army for 15 years? If you put yourself in Rosario Murillo\u2019s shoes, you realize that no one really wants a military chief who\u2019s held power for that long, because that means he has influence over many lower-ranking officers\u2014the so-called \u201chollow reeds.\u201d So, in my view, Avil\u00e9s is definitely in the firing line. My impression is that for Rosario Murillo and Daniel Ortega, who supports her and makes decisions together with her, people like Avil\u00e9s or Gustavo Porras\u2014who have accumulated political influence in their respective spheres (Porras in the Sandinista deputies, Avil\u00e9s in the Army)\u2014are seen as threats. Francisco D\u00edaz is safe because he\u2019s part of the Ortega-Murillo family network, as a father-in-law (to one of Ortega&#8217;s sons). But the rest of the officers aren\u2019t. Many high-ranking officers and general commissioners who led the repression in 2018 are now just at home watching TV\u2014they\u2019ve been sidelined. <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/politica\/cae-el-policia-superministro-horacio-rocha-por-ordenes-de-rosario-murillo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Horacio Rocha, who held immense power and was supposed to be the super-minister<\/a> of National Security, has fallen.<a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/nacion\/rosario-murillo-destituye-al-jefe-de-escolta-policial-de-daniel-ortega\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Alberto Acu\u00f1a, the top bodyguard for Daniel Ortega,<\/a> was also eliminated, dishonorably discharged, stripped of everything. That is what is happening with all of Daniel Ortega&#8217;s entourage and Rosario Murillo is somewhat afraid of them.      <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-171784\" srcset=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha-480x320.jpg 480w, https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/sandinismo-historico-marcha.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Among the ranks of historic Sandinismo there is fear of purges by the dictatorship. Photo: CCC <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p><strong>Daniel Ortega has remained silent about all these purges, except in the case of his brother Humberto, whom he publicly accused of being a traitor. But he has said nothing about Baltodano, his own chief bodyguard, other ministers, or now Bayardo Arce. Are these Murillo\u2019s orders, or joint decisions? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>They are decisions made by both, taken around the dining table at the Ortega-Murillo family home. Daniel Ortega always does this\u2014it\u2019s convenient for him that \u201cthe blame\u201d for these actions falls on Rosario Murillo, so he appears as the commander who doesn\u2019t realize, who doesn\u2019t know, while Rosario takes advantage. <\/p>\n\n<p>But Daniel is the one making the decisions. He personally, together with Rosario Murillo, decided to imprison Humberto Ortega, and also to imprison \u00c1lvaro Baltodano, sentencing him to 20 years\u2014those are direct calls to the judicial hitmen. He also personally, with Rosario, decided to kidnap Bayardo Arce at midnight and sentence him; he\u2019s now held in La Modelo prison and will likely be sentenced to 30 years soon. Daniel Ortega takes these decisions with Rosario Murillo, but it\u2019s always convenient for him to shift the \u201cblame\u201d to her.  <\/p>\n\n<p>There is still a sector within the Sandinista movement that wants to believe the commander is unaware, as if he were a baby. But not only is he aware\u2014he personally takes decisions of this nature. Rosario Murillo has not yet made these decisions alone; they are joint.  <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>All these high officials who have been purged or dismissed are being replaced by others loyal to Rosario Murillo. Is there a rising political-economic Murillo elite within the dictatorship? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>I believe so. The characteristic of Rosario Murillo&#8217;s appointments is that they are people who have no political weight by themselves. They are totally dependent on her, on her appointment, on her putting them in or taking them out. They have no political weight. Bayardo has political weight, Baltodano has political weight, but the appointments made by Rosario Murillo have no political weight and that is what it is all about.    <\/p>\n\n<p>For her, it\u2019s crucial that everyone left in the chain of command is weak enough to accept her control and that of her heir children.<\/p>\n\n<p>Are the high generals in the army willing to be commanded\u2014not only by Rosario Murillo but by Juan Carlos Ortega, Laureano, Daniel Edmundo, or any of the Ortega-Murillo children? The condition is that the heads of institutions be weak enough to owe their positions exclusively not to their own political weight but to the finger that appoints them\u2014that finger being Rosario Murillo. That has always been her operating model.<\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Is this model viable? Can this dynastic succession, led by Rosario Murillo&#8217;s paranoid style of power, give stability and continuity to the dictatorship? That is what people are asking themselves today in the corridors of the Government, the Army, the Police.<\/strong><br\/><br\/>I do not see it viable, because she will eventually reap what she sows: a tyrannical, vengeful, authoritarian person who disrespects and humiliates those under her authority. Moreover, she lacks the political skills and strategic sense that Daniel Ortega had when he was in better shape.<\/p>\n\n<p>Rosario Murillo sees political hegemony as a problem, and for her, power is resolved through the exercise of authority backed by armed repression. That is her model of power, and it is one that will completely fail. Once Daniel Ortega is gone, she will be in a position of maximum weakness\u2014which is exactly what they are trying to avoid right now.  <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Can this dynastic succession bring stability to the country? Can it respond to or address the deep, accumulated problems Nicaragua faces today? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p>They don\u2019t address anything. President <a href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/economia\/trump-mantiene-aranceles-del-18-para-exportaciones-de-nicaragua-a-partir-del-7-de-agosto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Donald Trump has imposed an 18% tariff on Nicaraguan goods<\/a>, and the Ortega-Murillo government hasn\u2019t even made an attempt to negotiate a reduction. Nicaraguan products are now entering the U.S. market at a major disadvantage, which will affect economic conditions within Nicaragua.  <\/p>\n\n<p>What has been the Ortega-Murillo regime\u2019s response to migrant deportations? Receiving migrants\u2014because they\u2019re obligated to\u2014but can Nicaraguan migrants really trust the country\u2019s consulates in the United States when there are barely any left? These consulates don\u2019t even have the mandate to provide legal assistance to the migrants who send back more than half of the U.S. dollar income Nicaragua receives.<\/p>\n\n<p>The Ortega-Murillo regime is not tackling even the most basic economic issues. Their style of governance avoids facing problems head-on.<\/p>\n\n<p>Nicaragua remains at the bottom of the list of Latin American countries in terms of poverty\u2014only ahead of Haiti. No one knows what happened to the Venezuelan cooperation funds. There\u2019s no international aid from any country because the Ortega-Murillo regime has deliberately destroyed those relationships. They\u2019ve pulled out of nearly every UN organization that once provided funding to Nicaragua, and now they hang on to Russia and China. But the Chinese are businessmen\u2014they don\u2019t give anything away. The Russians have intelligence interests\u2014they\u2019re not giving handouts either.     <\/p>\n\n<p>There is no international cooperation for Nicaragua. The economic situation will worsen because the regime is incapable of facing the country\u2019s future. Nicaragua has lost massive human capital due to migration and exile. Thousands of young people with enormous potential are standing out abroad, and Nicaragua is losing them\u2014either because they have no opportunities or because they\u2019ve been forced into exile by the regime.   <\/p>\n\n<p><strong>Returning to the purge of Bayardo Arce and \u00c1lvaro Baltodano, both former Ortega allies\u2014has this caused any cracks within the regime? Are there signs of fissures in this dynastic succession process?<\/strong><br\/><br\/>There\u2019s a great deal of unrest within the ranks of \u201chistorical Sandinismo,\u201d who see a clear intent to forcibly remove all of them in order to install not just Rosario Murillo in power, but all of her children. In the eyes of historical Sandinistas\u2014people who fought not only against the Somoza dictatorship but also during the 1980s\u2014the Ortega-Murillo children come across as spoiled heirs, behaving like princelings. It\u2019s especially offensive when the regime resorts to purging visible leaders of historical Sandinismo, who, in a way, represent them. There\u2019s considerable discontent. The structure of the Sandinista Front no longer exists as it once did, but there\u2019s still a Sandinista base\u2014diminished, but present\u2014and even they do not support this dynastic, family-based model of succession.   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The purge of presidential advisor Bayardo Arce Casta\u00f1o, who was arrested at his home by dozens of police officers at midnight on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, \u201cis generating unrest among the historical Sandinismo that still remains in the Army, the Police, the Government, and the Sandinista Front,\u201d says Dora Mar\u00eda T\u00e9llez, historian and political activist. 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