{"id":170267,"date":"2025-07-07T00:12:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-07T06:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/theres-a-deal-between-ortega-and-trump-to-receive-flights-of-nicaraguan-deportees\/"},"modified":"2025-07-07T03:52:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-07T09:52:14","slug":"theres-a-deal-between-ortega-and-trump-to-receive-flights-of-nicaraguan-deportees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/policy\/theres-a-deal-between-ortega-and-trump-to-receive-flights-of-nicaraguan-deportees\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cThere\u2019s a Deal Between Ortega and Trump to Receive Flights of Nicaraguan Deportees\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the first half of 2025, more than 2,000 Nicaraguan migrants were deported<\/a> on 19 flights from the United States \u2014 half of which passed through the Guant\u00e1namo naval base \u2014 and were received in secret by Ortega-Murillo regime authorities in Managua.<\/p>\n\n

Despite the official secrecy and Daniel Ortega\u2019s anti-Trump rhetoric, Andrew Selee, director of the Migration Policy Institute<\/em> in the United States, believes there is a deal between Trump and Ortega to accept the deportees.<\/p>\n\n

“The United States can\u2019t send a plane to Nicaragua without an agreement with the Nicaraguan government. We don\u2019t know what is given in return by the U.S., whether the U.S. applies some kind of pressure, or lifts some kind of pressure it would otherwise have used. But obviously, the Ortega-Murillo regime isn\u2019t receiving these planes for free,” he explained.<\/p>\n\n

In an interview with the program Esta Semana<\/em>, which airs on CONFIDENCIAL\u2019s YouTube channel due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Selee analyzed the impact that the new fiscal law<\/a>, passed by the U.S. Congress and endorsed by Trump on July 4, 2025, will have on mass deportation policy.<\/p>\n\n

“They were given $45 billion for detention and deportation, more money for the border, more money for the border wall. They\u2019re going to hire more planes to speed up the deportation process and probably also hire more personnel to track down undocumented migrants,” Selee explained. However, he warned that it will be very difficult for them to reach the goal of one million deportations in 2025, out of a total of 14\u202fmillion undocumented people. \u201cThat\u2019s very difficult \u2014 maybe half a million in the first year. They will definitely generate fear. All undocumented migrants will have a rational fear of being deported, but the vast majority will never actually be deported from the country.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

Deportations of migrants to Nicaragua are handled by the Ortega-Murillo regime in absolute secrecy. But last Tuesday, the U.S. Embassy in Managua reported that dozens of Nicaraguans had been deported on a military plane. Why deport migrants on a military flight? <\/strong>That’s very unusual. They started doing that at the beginning of the Trump administration and then they stopped using military aircraft because it’s more expensive, and they’ve been using the airlines that have the contracted aircraft.<\/p>\n\n

It is not clear to me why they did that, because obviously it calls attention when they send a military plane, and these were part Nicaraguans, part Venezuelans. Maybe they wanted to emphasize that they’re doing deportations to Nicaragua, but we already knew they were sending Nicaraguans to Nicaragua. That has not stopped during the Trump administration. <\/p>\n\n

The truth is that now that the humanitarian parole<\/em> program \u2014 which many Nicaraguans used to enter the U.S. legally, with the consent of the U.S. government \u2014 has ended, their permission to stay in the country has expired. As a result, many more Nicaraguans are now left unprotected, undocumented, and subject to deportation.In the end, U.S. diplomatic sources indicated that only Nicaraguans \u2014 not Venezuelans \u2014 were on that military flight. But does this mean there\u2019s an agreement between the Ortega dictatorship and the Trump administration to coordinate these deportations? <\/strong>There has to be. The United States can\u2019t send a plane to Nicaragua without the consent and an agreement with the Nicaraguan government. We saw this with Biden too, and now with Trump \u2014 there\u2019s a negotiation for these deportation flights to Nicaragua. We don\u2019t know what the U.S. gives in exchange, whether the U.S. applies some kind of pressure or lifts some kind of pressure it might otherwise use. But obviously, the Ortega-Murillo regime isn\u2019t accepting these planes for free. The difference with the Biden administration is that the number of Nicaraguan deportees has increased significantly. In this first half of the year, 2,100 migrants have been received on 21 flights from the United States \u2014 40% more than during the same period under Biden. What\u2019s striking is that more than half of these flights stopped at the Guant\u00e1namo naval base to pick up deported Nicaraguans. Why send deported migrants to Guant\u00e1namo? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

They sent Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, and people from other countries whose governments were difficult to coordinate returns with, and this is also a way to pressure those governments to take back their nationals so they don\u2019t remain held at Guant\u00e1namo. I don\u2019t know if that was part of the pressure put on the Nicaraguan government, but I suspect there\u2019s a negotiation behind it \u2014 there almost always is in these cases. <\/p>\n\n

While there have always been undocumented Nicaraguans, there were many who arrived legally, with permission, with their humanitarian parole<\/em>, they came in line with what the U.S. government asked of them. Now that this has been taken away, suddenly there\u2019s a much larger group that\u2019s truly vulnerable to being deported.At least 90,000 Nicaraguans entered with parole; of these, 60,000 did not apply for asylum. But it\u2019s estimated that more than 250,000 are currently undocumented and were already at risk of deportation. What happens now that this spending bill has been approved, giving the Trump administration more resources to push its deportation policy? <\/strong>They were given $45 billion for detention and deportation, plus more money for the border and the border wall. But that $45 billion is specifically focused on detention and deportation. <\/p>\n\n

It’s very difficult for them to recruit new agents, that’s for sure, but it takes a long time. What they are going to do quickly is increase the number of beds, that is their detention capacity so that they can hold more people while they are waiting to be deported. They are going to hire more airplanes to speed up the deportation process and they are probably also going to hire personnel to track undocumented migrants. <\/p>\n\n

What takes up much of ICE agents\u2019 time is tracking down undocumented people \u2014 knowing who they are, where they are, what time they get home or go to work \u2014 and for all that, they can hire outside contractors.<\/p>\n\n

There will almost certainly be an increase in arrests and deportations, but there are also opposing forces. One is the courts \u2014 we\u2019ll have to see where some of the Supreme Court\u2019s initial decisions end up, and detention policies are still being challenged in court in the United States.Second, public opinion is turning much more negative toward deportations. At first, it was very popular because the public did want Donald Trump to stop the flow at the border and reduce the number of arrivals \u2014 he portrayed undocumented migrants as criminals. But now it\u2019s clear they\u2019re mostly targeting people at their workplaces, and the public has become much more skeptical. A majority is now negative toward Trump on immigration \u2014 and that shift has really emerged in the past month. <\/p>\n\n

In the case of Nicaragua, Ortega has begun to openly criticize Trump\u2019s deportation policy, but at the same time, the Nicaraguan government has withdrawn the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and has closed several consulates in the United States. What effect does pulling out of these agencies have on the protection of Nicaraguan migrants and refugees in other countries? <\/strong>We shouldn\u2019t be surprised that the regime in Nicaragua has no real commitment to protecting Nicaraguan migrants and refugees. After all, most of them are fleeing the regime itself \u2014 or at the very least the collapse of society and the economy, which stems from the regime\u2019s policies. <\/p>\n\n

I don\u2019t know how much Nicaraguans in the U.S. actually use their consulates. I think they have the same problem as Cubans \u2014 in general, they avoid going to the Cuban consulate except when absolutely necessary because they distrust their government very much. It\u2019s the same with Nicaraguans and consular services. Obviously, people sometimes need paperwork and go through with it, but there\u2019s generally no close connection, unlike with other consulates. If you go to the Guatemalan, Mexican or Colombian consulates, they have very direct, frequent contact with their nationals. That\u2019s not the case with Nicaragua and Cuba. The people who had humanitarian parole and work permits have already been notified \u2014 they\u2019ve been told their permits are suspended and they\u2019re being asked to self-deport. Those people are under ICE supervision and control. And I assume those who now send remittances and have to pay that 1% tax can also be located more easily by the state. <\/strong>.They can be located. I believe that many will change their address, because if they gave their address to ICE or to USCIS, or to any U.S. government agency, many will change their address so that they cannot be located.<\/p>\n\n

In theory, employers have been notified that their workers\u2019 status has been revoked \u2014 some companies in the U.S. are on a registry that checks the validity of documents. But many businesses, especially small businesses, won\u2019t even register that the parole<\/em> program has ended \u2014 many may not know. So, surely, some people will manage to keep working legally, and others will lose their jobs \u2014 in fact, many probably already have. What is the government\u2019s actual capacity to increase deportations in the second half of the year, now that they have that big boost in resources you mentioned? You said they can\u2019t just hire more agents, but they have more money now. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Yes, but they\u2019ll be able to contract services that help them, and they\u2019ll have more detention space \u2014 so they\u2019ll significantly increase deportations. Arrests and deportations will go up, but it will still be a fraction of the total.<\/p>\n\n

They\u2019ve said they want to reach one million deportations a year \u2014 that\u2019s very difficult. It\u2019s not impossible, but at this moment it is. Maybe a year from now they\u2019ll manage a million per year, but there are 14 million undocumented people in the U.S. Even if they reach a million per year for three years \u2014 or maybe half a million in the first year \u2014 it\u2019s still just a fraction of the total. The probability of any single person being deported is very low. They will generate fear, no doubt \u2014 all undocumented people will have a rational fear of being deported, but the vast majority will never actually be removed from the country. <\/p>\n\n

This same spending package includes a one percent tax on remittances.At first, this was also intended as a way to discourage undocumented migration. Originally, it was supposed to be a 5% tax only on non-citizen migrants. During negotiations in the Senate, it was reduced from 5% to 3.5%, and then in the House it was lowered again to one percent, and now it applies to everyone \u2014 citizens and non-citizens alike. It would obviously be better with no tax at all, but in the end, one percent probably won\u2019t change people\u2019s lives or their behavior when it comes to sending remittances. If it were 5%, I think it would have a huge impact. You mentioned the protests and the unpopularity building around the raids, detentions, and these types of deportations. Is that focused on certain cities in particular? Could it influence the way the Trump administration is carrying out deportations? Is it an effective form of protest? <\/strong>The visible protests aren\u2019t the ones that are really effective \u2014 what\u2019s effective is the public\u2019s discontent. It\u2019s much stronger among Democrats and independents, and weaker among Republicans, but it\u2019s starting to show among Republicans too \u2014 especially business owners, mainly in the agricultural sector, who tend to be very supportive of Trump, and in the hospitality and restaurant industries, which have also been strong pro-Trump groups. That\u2019s where he\u2019s feeling some pressure from his own side. <\/p>\n\n

The people protesting in the streets are mostly Democrats and people who hate Trump, but the pushback that actually affects Trump is coming from his own base \u2014 pro-Trump business owners who don\u2019t want workplace inspections scaring off their workers or stopping them from showing up.<\/p>\n\n

Polls show that about 40% of the population supports Trump\u2019s immigration policies and control measures, but around 50\u201355% oppose them \u2014 they don\u2019t like how he\u2019s enforcing them. That\u2019s a shift. Just two months ago there was massive support for Trump\u2019s immigration initiatives, because the public saw them as targeting criminals. Not all, but the impression was that most deportees were criminals, and about 60% in the past two months did have some kind of criminal record \u2014 maybe not severe, but still. But when the workplace raids started, that changed the profile \u2014 now it\u2019s people\u2019s neighbors. <\/p>\n\n

In the United States, undocumented people aren\u2019t a group separate from the rest of us \u2014 they\u2019re part of the community. You might think of an undocumented criminal as someone different, but when it\u2019s workers being taken away, it\u2019s people we know personally. <\/p>\n\n

Is there any limit to how far the deportation policy can go, given the concerns from business owners and other sectors about the labor force?<\/strong>Yes, the limit is Donald Trump. Trump is a political animal, and it all depends on how he reads the situation. Right now, he has Stephen Miller \u2014 his Senior Policy Advisor \u2014 as the main architect of his immigration policies and really of most domestic policy. But Trump is perfectly capable of changing his mind if he feels enough pressure from business owners, especially those in sectors that are traditionally loyal to him. <\/p>\n\n

What we\u2019ve learned about Donald Trump is that he has instincts but no principles.He has political instincts \u2014 he wants to show he\u2019s tough on immigration \u2014 and that won\u2019t change. But he\u2019s also capable of changing specific measures if he senses that public opinion is shifting. <\/p>\n\n

I think at some point there will be some adjustments. He\u2019s already talked \u2014 I\u2019ve counted five times \u2014 about creating a legal pathway for people who work in agriculture and hospitality. We don\u2019t know of any concrete measure right now, but it\u2019s very likely that someone in the administration is putting pen to paper and trying to design something that fits his criteria. <\/p>\n\n

Stephen Miller won\u2019t like that, but Miller is loyal to Donald Trump, and everyone else in the administration will go along with it. I\u2019m not saying he\u2019ll stop deporting people \u2014 that\u2019s always going to continue \u2014 but the nature, the pace, and the sectors affected could change a lot, depending on the man in power \u2014 President Trump. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the first half of 2025, more than 2,000 Nicaraguan migrants were deported on 19 flights from the United States \u2014 half of which passed through the Guant\u00e1namo naval base \u2014 and were received in secret by Ortega-Murillo regime authorities in Managua. Despite the official secrecy and Daniel Ortega\u2019s anti-Trump rhetoric, Andrew Selee, director of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":169699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445,15449],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-170267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english","category-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cThere\u2019s a Deal Between Ortega and Trump to Receive Flights of Nicaraguan Deportees\u201d - Confidencial<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Andrew Selee, director of the Migration Policy Institute: \u201cThe Ortega-Murillo regime isn\u2019t receiving the planes for free\u201d\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/policy\/theres-a-deal-between-ortega-and-trump-to-receive-flights-of-nicaraguan-deportees\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cThere\u2019s a Deal Between Ortega and Trump to Receive Flights of Nicaraguan Deportees\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Andrew Selee, director of the Migration Policy Institute: \u201cThe Ortega-Murillo regime isn\u2019t receiving the planes for free\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/policy\/theres-a-deal-between-ortega-and-trump-to-receive-flights-of-nicaraguan-deportees\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Confidencial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/confidencial.com.ni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-07T06:12:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-07T09:52:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/vuelo-deportados-militar.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos F. 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