{"id":166913,"date":"2025-05-18T04:28:38","date_gmt":"2025-05-18T10:28:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/sin-categoria\/the-5-remittance-tax-in-the-u-s-would-affect-50-million-migrants\/"},"modified":"2025-05-20T14:07:31","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T20:07:31","slug":"the-5-remittance-tax-in-the-u-s-would-affect-50-million-migrants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/the-5-remittance-tax-in-the-u-s-would-affect-50-million-migrants\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cThe 5% Remittance Tax in the U.S. Would Affect 50 Million Migrants\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The U.S. House of Representatives will debate on Monday, May 19, 2025, a Republican-backed bill that proposes a 5% tax on all remittance transfers made by all kinds of migrants<\/a>\u2014whether undocumented, permanent residents, work visa holders, or anyone under any form of immigration protection. Only U.S. citizens would be exempt from this tax. <\/p>\n\n

Political scientist Manuel Orozco, a researcher on migration, remittances, and development at the Inter-American Dialogue, estimates that around 50 million migrants who already pay taxes in the U.S.would be affected by this proposed 5% tax.<\/p>\n\n

In an interview on Esta Semana <\/em>airing Sunday, May 18 at 8:00 p.m. on CONFIDENCIAL’s YouTube channel<\/a>,due to television censorship in Nicaragua, Orozco said that the new tax could reduce remittance flows from the U.S. to Nicaragua by 10%, leading to decreased private consumption and a 1% drop in the country’s GDP. <\/p>\n\n

On Monday, May 19, the U.S. Congress begins debating a Republican bill to impose a 5% tax on remittances sent by migrants living in the U.S. Can we estimate how many people might be affected? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The debate centers on an amendment to the tax code that would impose a 5% fee on remittances sent by anyone who is not a U.S. citizen. We\u2019re talking about nearly 50 million people who would be affected. While there is a significant number of naturalized citizens in the U.S., it\u2019s nowhere near 50 million\u2014only about 15 million. Overall, there are around 65 million migrants in the country. <\/p>\n\n

The impact is significant, as it includes people who are in the country without legal authorization, as well as those with a range of legal statuses\u2014from Green Card<\/em> holders to individuals with various types of work permits.<\/p>\n\n

Double taxation for migrants<\/h2>\n\n

But migrants living and working in the U.S.\u2014even those without legal status\u2014already pay taxes. Would this be an additional tax, specifically targeting non-citizens? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Correct. The legal justification does not exist. The bill does not say why it is targeting non-citizens, regardless of their legal status in the United States. It’s a legal imposition for being a foreign national, a non-citizen, rather than for being someone who doesn’t pay taxes. And that’s creating a big debate, because it really includes a lot of people who do pay taxes.<\/a> <\/p>\n\n

Even undocumented migrants are paying taxes\u2014it’s estimated that between 50% and 75% of them do so using an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN). Broadly speaking, only around 20% of the migrant population isn\u2019t paying any kind of income tax. <\/p>\n\n

By focusing on this universe of migrants, can it be deduced that this law is also a control mechanism to locate migrants in the face of possible mass deportations?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The objectives of the bill aren\u2019t entirely clear. On one hand, it seems to be part of a broader strategy aimed at cutting off immigration altogether and tightening control over those already in the country. <\/p>\n\n

The tax is supposedly meant to discourage migration because it will be harder and more expensive to send money home. For those already here, the goal seems to be to make it so expensive that they consider leaving. And there are other legislative proposals, like ending birthright citizenship. So, they are really trying to limit the freedom of those in the United States who are not citizens. <\/p>\n\n

If this law were to be approved, as it is currently written or with some amendments, what impact would it have on migrants sending remittances not only to Nicaragua, but also to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Mexico, and around twenty other countries?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s very difficult to determine the exact impact. I\u2019ve been working on migration and remittances for over 30 years, and one of the key issues we\u2019ve focused on is reducing the rate of informality. One of the main causes of informality is the transaction cost. Currently, the average transaction cost is about 3%, but this would rise to around 8%. <\/p>\n\n

Based on data I\u2019ve collected since the 2000s on informality rates worldwide, a 1% increase in transaction costs leads to an 8% increase in informal transfers. People tend to \u201cvote with their feet\u201d by turning to informal channels when costs rise. <\/p>\n\n

Another factor is that people send less money because they can\u2019t afford the higher costs. For example, those sending money to Haiti or Cuba\u2014where sending funds is already expensive due to local conditions\u2014or in Europe, where only banks are authorized to process transfers, many resort to informal channels but still send small amounts. With an additional 1% cost, people could end up sending as much as $150 less\u2014almost 40% less than what is currently being sent. <\/p>\n\n

\"Manuel
Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances and Development program of the Inter-American Dialogue. Photo: File <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

The impact on migrant families<\/h2>\n\n

With this law, could families who receive remittances be affected? What about the formal remittance companies providing these services, and the economies of the countries receiving these remittances?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The moment is really quite critical because migration trends had been sharply declining, and with deportations, you were already seeing a slowdown, a decrease in remittances. What happened in the first quarter of 2025 had to do with migrants thinking, \u201cI better send as much as I can now because I don\u2019t know what the future holds.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

With this tax, we could be looking at at least a 10% drop, depending on different scenarios. But for a country like Nicaragua, for example, where about 800,000 transactions are sent monthly per person \u2014 actually more than 950,000 monthly transactions, since people send money over 12 times a year \u2014 that drop would be at least 10%. In Nicaragua\u2019s case, only 14% of Nicaraguans in the U.S. are citizens. So the impact would be quite significant. <\/p>\n\n

What impact would this have on the economy, particularly on how remittances affect consumption and government tax revenue?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The impact would be huge because for a country like Nicaragua, dependence on remittances for private consumption is very high. Over 30% of private consumption comes from remittances. The Nicaraguan economy is about 80% private consumption, government spending is around 16%, and the rest comes from other external sector income. But it\u2019s private consumption that drives the economy, and in Nicaragua, more than a third of consumption transactions rely on remittances. So a 10% drop in remittances would reduce private consumption by the same amount. That would translate into at least a 1% decrease in GDP. <\/p>\n\n

The increase in informality<\/h2>\n\n

What\u2019s the current climate around this legislative debate in the U.S., and what are remittance companies saying?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The remittance industry is very concerned because they understand the impact. These companies know when they have to compete with the informal economy. Back around 2000, about 30% of remittances were informal. There was a push to reduce that through competition and lowering costs, and now informality is down to 2%. <\/p>\n\n

There is great concern about the drop in income, on the one hand, but also the most worrying issue is the effect it has on financial risk, because when people go to informal mechanisms, illicit transfers can also occur.<\/p>\n\n

So, you can use a shipping platform that is also laundering money in that same mechanism. And that reflects a very big impact on the national security of the United States. <\/p>\n\n

There is concern within Congress, both Democrats and Republicans, and an important fact about remittances is that they reduce the intention to migrate, since people who receive remittances tend to formalize their savings.<\/p>\n\n

Another interesting impact relates to consumption: remittances are statistically closely correlated with the import of American goods. So if you reduce remittances, fewer American products are purchased. In that sense, this measure unexpectedly undercuts U.S. exports. <\/p>\n\n

We\u2019ve seen how other countries have reacted to the possibility of this legislation being approved, as in the case of Mexico. But domestically, in the United States, do migrants have a chance to make their voices heard against this law? What are the chances it will actually pass? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The likelihood of it passing in the House of Representatives is very high. In the Senate, however, there\u2019s going to be a major fight because it also affects state interests\u2014when you take away some kind of revenue from the states, since there would be a drop in tax income from remittance companies. That impacts the tax contributions the states receive. <\/p>\n\n

Migrant organizations are trying to mobilize on all fronts, and there is some level of solidarity. Public opinion in general is very supportive of remittances. So there will definitely be opposition. The law under debate includes several issues, including state taxes, which makes it very controversial, and so it will be very difficult for it to pass in the Senate. <\/p>\n\n

But these bills have full support from President Trump, who still enjoys popularity on migration issues.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Public opinion has declined regarding deportations and has been divided on migration overall. Regarding Congress, it\u2019s actually the opposite. Republican congress members are essentially giving the president a vote of confidence by introducing legislation focused on immigration restrictions,<\/a> and they are betting everything they can on this. It\u2019s quite complicated for Republicans both in the House and Senate. Their reputations are very much at stake, and the midterm election process is just around the corner, so they\u2019re taking quite a risk. <\/p>\n\n

What is the political deadline for the possible approval of this law? Are we talking about something imminent in the coming weeks, months? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

The debate is to try to get this approved before July 4, before the end of the year recess.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. House of Representatives will debate on Monday, May 19, 2025, a Republican-backed bill that proposes a 5% tax on all remittance transfers made by all kinds of migrants\u2014whether undocumented, permanent residents, work visa holders, or anyone under any form of immigration protection. Only U.S. citizens would be exempt from this tax. Political scientist […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":166761,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_eb_data_table":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15445],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-166913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n"5% remittance tax in the U.S. would affect 50 million migrants."<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Manuel Orozco: \u201cThe potential impact on Nicaragua includes a 10% drop in remittances and private consumption, and a 1% drop in GDP\u201d\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/the-5-remittance-tax-in-the-u-s-would-affect-50-million-migrants\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cThe 5% Remittance Tax in the U.S. Would Affect 50 Million Migrants\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Manuel Orozco: \u201cThe potential impact on Nicaragua includes a 10% drop in remittances and private consumption, and a 1% drop in GDP\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/en\/english\/the-5-remittance-tax-in-the-u-s-would-affect-50-million-migrants\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Confidencial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/confidencial.com.ni\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-18T10:28:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-20T20:07:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/confidencial.digital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Dolares-en-billetes.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1227\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carlos F. 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