Majority of Nicaraguans Reject Confiscations, Banishments, and New Constitution

The majority of Nicaraguans reject the confiscations and banishments ordered by the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo in Nicaragua and claim to be concerned about the imposition of the new Political Constitution, according to the results of the most recent public opinion poll conducted in Nicaragua by the Costa Rican firm CID Gallup.

The survey was conducted between January 6 and 24, 2025, sponsored by the Fundación Sin Límites para el Desarrollo Humano (FSL). In the study, the Foundation included a set of specific questions on the national situation, the results of which were complemented with the data collected by the Costa Rican pollster.

A 36.3% of the Nicaraguans surveyed said they were not aware of the reform that was approved in the first legislature at the end of November 2024 and then approved in dribs and drabs during January 2025 and finally published in February in the Official Gazette La Gaceta.

However, among those who acknowledged being aware of the constitutional change, 25.6% considered that it would have a “very negative or negative” impact and 20.1% thought that its impact would be “very positive or positive”. Another 8% stated that the impact would be neither negative nor positive, and 10% opted not to answer the question.

The changes that generate the most concern

The new Constitution reforms more than 93% of the articles of the Magna Carta of Nicaragua, changes the political system of Nicaragua by establishing the co-presidency to guarantee the two-headed Ortega – Murillo dictatorship. It also extends the presidential term from five to six years, annuls the independence of the Powers of the State (which it also reduces to “organs”), establishes public offices for life and imposes the flag of the Sandinista Front as the “new” national symbol, among other changes which also annul rights and guarantees of Nicaraguans.

Regarding the changes that generate the most concern in the constitutional reform, 53.8% mentioned several changes, among others:

• Extension of the presidential term to 6 years: 16.1%.
• The Presidency now coordinates the organs of the State: 14%.
• Creation of the Co-Presidency: 7%.
• That now the vice president will not be elected by popular vote: 9%.
• That university autonomy is not recognized: 7%.

24.7% said they were not concerned about any constitutional change, 21.5% said they did not know or chose not to answer.

The question was asked again, with other response options on constitutional changes:

• 23.1% mentioned that they are concerned that the State will monitor the media.
• 11.9% stated that they are concerned about the imposition of the FSLN flag as a national symbol.
• 10.6% mentioned hooded “volunteer police” as a concern.

More than 1,200 survey respondents

The survey was conducted by telephone, in a sample of 1202 people nationwide, who have an active cell phone line. The data have a margin of error equal to ± 2.8 points, calculated with a 95% confidence level.

23.9% of the respondents are located in Managua and 76.1% reside in the rest of the country. Fifty-four percent of respondents are female and 46.0% are male, and in terms of age, 50.6% of respondents are under 35 years old, 26.1% are between 35-44 years old, 11.2% are between 45-54 years old, and 12.1% are over 55 years old.

Daniel Ortega’s succession

The survey also consulted Nicaraguans on one of the most talked about issues in the country: the succession of power after Daniel Ortega.

“If President Ortega were unable to govern, who could assume the leadership of the government?” the firm asked.

• 48.8% said they did not know or did not answer about the succession.
• 29.1% thought that he would be succeeded by the now “co-president” Rosario Murillo.
• 13.2% mentioned the son of the co-presidents Laureano Ortega Murillo
• 7% to Fidel Moreno, secretary of the Mayor’s Office of Managua and trusted political operator of Murillo.
• The 3% mentioned Gustavo Porras, former trade unionist, president of the National Assembly and FSLN operator loyal to Ortega and Murillo.

And “what would happen in the country if Ortega could not govern,” the poll continued. The majority, 54.1%, said there would be changes in the country.

• 28% considered that there would be elections with international observation
• 26.1% stated that social protests would be generated.

23.2% said there would be no change if Ortega could not govern,

and another 23.2% do not know or did not answer the question.

Approval of Ortega and repression

Regarding the approval of Daniel Ortega’s presidential work, a slight improvement is observed in the results of this survey, in which 39.3% responded that they approve of his administration, although a majority of 49.1% responded that they disapprove of it and the remaining 11.7% said they did not know or did not respond.

However, when citizens were asked their opinion on the government’s repressive actions against opposition members, the level of disapproval exceeded 60%.

Specifically, 67% disagree with the confiscation of property, 63.7% disapprove of the denial of entry into the country, 62.4% reject the withdrawal of citizenship, and 60.4% disapprove of the expulsion of citizens from the country. In addition, 57.2% responded that they disagreed with jail and prison policies.

On the other hand, there is a low level of approval of the repression, ranging between 13% and 21%, mainly among FSLN sympathizers.

The disagreement or disapproval of those surveyed is also expressed by a majority in relation to the repressive actions of the Government against people who are related to the same Government.

56.9% disagree with the dismissal of public employees and officials and 51.2% disapprove of the deprivation of their freedom.

Main problems of Nicaragua and its households

Unemployment is the main problem facing the country, according to the response of 28% of respondents. In second place is public corruption, with 19.5%. The high cost of living was ranked as the third main problem, with 16.5%, and 10.5% placed citizen insecurity in the next order of the list.

The sum of the percentages that identify unemployment and the high cost of living among the main problems is 44.5%, indicating that the majority consider economic deprivation to be the main problem in Nicaragua.

The trend is reaffirmed by the responses to what is the main concern within the households. 33% responded that they were concerned about unemployment and 25.6% identified the high cost of living as the main concern. of life. That is to say that for more than 55.6% these are the main concerns within the families.

To a lesser extent, others ranked crime and violence in the neighborhood (7.4%) and housing in poor conditions (5.2%) among the main problems of households.

Specifically regarding citizen perception of crime and delinquency levels, in the last four months, 55.2% considered that the perception has increased, and 16.1% said it has decreased.

The survey also addressed Nicaraguans’ household income and coverage of basic needs.

The main responses are divided into two almost identical halves: 43.6% say that income is insufficient to cover basic needs, while 43.4% say that it is sufficient only to cover basic needs. A remaining 9.7% say that income is sufficient to cover basic needs and more.

Compared to the previous survey, dated October 2024, an improvement in the economic situation is perceived by both FSLN sympathizers and people who do not sympathize with any political party.

The vast majority do not trust that the current government will be able to resolve their situation, according to the results of the survey. 68.3% responded that the probability that the Government will resolve their situation is “not at all” or “not much”, and only 23.9% said that the probability is “somewhat” or “a lot”.

8 out of 10 do not prefer any party

The majority of Nicaraguans still do not choose a political party, in a country where the FSLN controls the entire state apparatus, municipal mayors’ offices and regional authorities, while it has annulled more than 5500 NGOs and opposition political parties, after annulling the electoral competition to prevail in the 2021 general elections.

Eighty percent of those surveyed stated that they do not sympathize with any political party in Nicaragua. Only 12.8% said they sympathize with the governing Sandinista Front and 7.2% mentioned different opposition parties in smaller percentages.

This is the sixth consecutive survey in which sympathy for the FSLN remains in a range between 11% and 13%, which is one of its lowest historical levels for a period of several years.

Nicaragua continues on the wrong track

The survey also asked Nicaraguans about their perception of the country’s direction. 51.5% responded that Nicaragua is going in the wrong direction. Only 34.1% responded that it is going in the right direction, and 14.4% said they did not know or did not respond.

Compared to a previous survey, done in October 2024, there was a slight increase of 1.7% of people who say the country is on the right track, while more than 60% of women and young people have a negative view of the country’s direction.